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COMPARISON OF THE EFFECT OF GLOBAL AND TURKISH GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ON BIST TOURISM INDEX

Yıl 2023, Sayı: C-iasoS 2022 Özel Sayısı, 163 - 174, 30.03.2023

N. Serap Vurur Letife Özdemir

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1224580

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Akdağ, S., Yıldırım, H. ve Kesebir, M. (2018). Jeopolitik Risk ile Borsa Endeksleri Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizi. Siyasi, Sosyal ve Kültürel Yönleriyle Türkiye ve Rusya, ed. İnanır, E., Köse, O. ve Ulutürk, Y. Ankara: Berikan Yayınevi, 59-74.
  • Akdağ, S., ve İskenderoğlu, Ö. (2021). The Impact of Global Uncertainty and Risks on The Global Tourism Index. Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 7(2), 70-76. https://doi.org/ 10.24288/jttr.951608
  • Alqahtani, A., Hammoudeh, S., ve Selmi, R. (2021). Relationship between Different Sources of Geopolitical Risks and Stock Markets in The GCC Region: A Dynamic Correlation Analysis. Review of Behavioral Finance. https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-07-2019-0099
  • Balcilar, M., Bonato, M., Demirer, R., ve Gupta, R. (2018). Geopolitical Risks and Stock Market Dynamics of The BRICS. Economic Systems, 42(2), 295-306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2017.05.008
  • Balli, F., Shahzad, S. J. H., ve Uddin, G. S. (2018). A Tale Of Two Shocks: What Do We Learn From The Impacts Of Economic Policy Uncertainties On Tourism?. Tourism Management, 68, 470-475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.04.008
  • Chen, J.H. ve Huang, Y.F. (2013). The Study of the Relationship between Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emission and Economic Growth. Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 6(2), 45-61. http://www2.southeastern.edu/orgs/econjournal/index_files/ JIGES%20DEC% 202013%2 0CHEN%20HUANG%20%203-28-2014.pdf
  • Demir, E., Gozgor, G., ve Paramati, S. R. (2019). Do Geopolitical Risks Matter For İnbound Tourism ? Eurasian Business Review, 9(2), 183-191. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-019-00118-9
  • Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M. H., ve Lau, C. K. M. (2020). Asymmetric Effects Of Geopolitical Risks On Turkey's Tourist Arrivals. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 23-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006.
  • Dickey, D. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distributions Of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root. The American Statistical Association, 74, 423-43. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531.
  • Emsen, H. S. (2022). Effects of Geopolitical Risks and Political Uncertainties on Stock Markets: Country Specific New Generation Panel Data Analysis For Developing Asian Countries. Journal of Process Management and New Technologies, 10(1-2), 82-101. https://doi.org/10.5937/jpmnt10-38252
  • Engle, R.F. ve Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. https://doi.org/ 10.2307/1913236
  • Ghosh, S. (2021). Geopolitical Risk, Economic Growth, Economic Uncertainty and İnternational İnbound Tourism: An Indian Illustration. Review of Economics and Political Science, 7(1), 2-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-07-2020-0081
  • Gülcan, N. ve Ceyhan, T. (2022). Jeopolitik Riskin Pay Senedi Fiyatlarına Etkisinin Fourier Yaklaşımıyla Değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye Örneği. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 14(3), 2531-2545. https://doi.org/10.20491/isarder.2022.1518
  • Hailemariam, A. ve Ivanovski, K. (2021). The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on US Tourism Net Exports. Tourism Economics, 24(22), 3134-3140. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2021.1876644
  • Hasan, M., Naeem, M. A., Arif, M., Shahzad, S. J. H. ve Nor, S. M. (2020). Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Stocks of Emerging Economies. Sustainability, 12(21), 9261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12219261
  • Jiang, Y., Tian, G., Wu, Y., ve Mo, B. (2020). Impacts Of Geopolitical Risks and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Chinesetourism-Listed Company Stock. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2020, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.
  • Oloko, T. F., Olaniran, A. O. ve Lasisi, L. A. (2021). Hedging Global and Country-Specific Geopolitical Risks With South Korean Stocks: A Predictability Approach. Asian Economics Letters, 2(3), 24418. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.24418
  • Phillips, P. ve Hansen, B. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297545
  • Polat, M., Alptürk, Y. ve Gürsoy, S. (2021). Impact Of Geopolitical Risk on BIST Tourism İndex And Tourist Arrivals İn Turkey. Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 7(2), 77-84. https://doi.org/10.24288/jttr.926617
  • Salisu, A. A., Ogbonna, A. E., Lasisi, L. ve Olaniran, A. (2022). Geopolitical Risk and Stock Market Volatility İn Emerging Markets: A GARCH–MIDAS Approach. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 62, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2022.101755
  • Travel & Tourism Economic Impact | World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) (2022) https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/2022/EIR2022-Global%20Trends.pdf (Erişim: 15.09.2022)
  • Tiwari, A. K., D. Das, ve A. Dutta. (2019). Geopolitical Risk, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence from a Developing Country. Tourism Management, 75, 323–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.002
  • Tütüncü, A. (2022). Türkiye’de Turizm Faaliyetlerini Belirleyen Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi. Güncel Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(2), 369-388. https://doi.org/10.32572/guntad.1031521
  • Lee, C. C., Olasehinde‐Williams, G. ve Akadiri, S. S. (2021). Geopolitical risk and tourism: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models. International Journal of Tourism Research, 23(1), 26-38. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2389
  • Yang, J., ve Yang, C. (2021). The Impact of Mixed-Frequency Geopolitical Risk on Stock Market Returns. Economic Analysis and Policy, 72, 226-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.eap.2021.08.008
  • Yıldız, M. (2020). The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Bank Loan Interest Rates in Turkey. Journal of Corporate Governance, Insurance, and Risk Management (JCGIRM), 7(1), 70-86. http://doi.org/10.51410/JCGIRM2019-2-5.
  • Zhang, H., Jiang, Z., Gao, W. ve Yang, C. (2022). Time-Varying İmpact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Tourist Arrivals: Evidence from A Developing Country. Tourism Management Perspectives, 41, 100928. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100928
  • Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm (Erişim: 10.08.2022)
  • BİST Turizm Indeks https://tr.investing.com/indices/ise-tourism (Erişim: 10.08.2022)

KÜRESEL VE TÜRKİYE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKLERİN BİST TURİZM ENDEKSİNE ETKİSİNİN KARŞILAŞTIRILMASI

Yıl 2023, Sayı: C-iasoS 2022 Özel Sayısı, 163 - 174, 30.03.2023

N. Serap Vurur Letife Özdemir

https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1224580

Öz

Turizm sektörünün ülke GSYİH içindeki yüksek pay oranı ve cari açığın finansmanında önemli bir gelir kaynağı olması dolayısıyla önemi yüksektir. Türkiye’de yükselen jeopolitik risklerin turizm sektörünü etkilemesi durumunda ulusal ekonomi içinde olumsuz sonuçları olacaktır. Bu nedenle, GPR endeksinin hem kısa vadede hem de uzun vadede etkilerinin incelenmesi ihtiyacı bu çalışmanın motivasyonunu oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmada küresel ve Türkiye jeopolitik risklerin BİST Turizm endeksi üzerinde etkilerinin olup olmadığı ve hangisinin etkisinin daha fazla olduğu araştırılmaktadır. Bu amaçla, Küresel jeopolitik risk (Küresel GPR), Türkiye jeopolitik riski (Türkiye GPR) ve BİST Turizm endeksi arasındaki ilişki Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme analizi ve FMOLS eşbütünleşme regresyon testi ile analiz edilmiştir. Eşbütünleşme analizi sonuçları GPR endeksleri ile BİST Turizm endeksi arasında uzun dönem eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Regresyon testi bulguları küresel jeopolitik risklerin turizm endeksi üzerinde etkisinin daha fazla olduğunu göstermektedir. Küresel GPR’deki bir birimlik artış BİST Turizm endeksini %4,45 oranında etkilemektedir. Türkiye’ye özgü jeopolitik riskler ile BİST Turizm endeksi arasında negatif bir korelasyon ilişkisi bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Jeopolitik Risk Bist Turizm endeksi Eşbütünleşme FMOLS REgresyon Testi

Kaynakça

  • Akdağ, S., Yıldırım, H. ve Kesebir, M. (2018). Jeopolitik Risk ile Borsa Endeksleri Arasındaki İlişki: Panel Eşbütünleşme ve Panel Nedensellik Analizi. Siyasi, Sosyal ve Kültürel Yönleriyle Türkiye ve Rusya, ed. İnanır, E., Köse, O. ve Ulutürk, Y. Ankara: Berikan Yayınevi, 59-74.
  • Akdağ, S., ve İskenderoğlu, Ö. (2021). The Impact of Global Uncertainty and Risks on The Global Tourism Index. Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 7(2), 70-76. https://doi.org/ 10.24288/jttr.951608
  • Alqahtani, A., Hammoudeh, S., ve Selmi, R. (2021). Relationship between Different Sources of Geopolitical Risks and Stock Markets in The GCC Region: A Dynamic Correlation Analysis. Review of Behavioral Finance. https://doi.org/10.1108/RBF-07-2019-0099
  • Balcilar, M., Bonato, M., Demirer, R., ve Gupta, R. (2018). Geopolitical Risks and Stock Market Dynamics of The BRICS. Economic Systems, 42(2), 295-306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecosys.2017.05.008
  • Balli, F., Shahzad, S. J. H., ve Uddin, G. S. (2018). A Tale Of Two Shocks: What Do We Learn From The Impacts Of Economic Policy Uncertainties On Tourism?. Tourism Management, 68, 470-475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.04.008
  • Chen, J.H. ve Huang, Y.F. (2013). The Study of the Relationship between Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emission and Economic Growth. Journal of International and Global Economic Studies, 6(2), 45-61. http://www2.southeastern.edu/orgs/econjournal/index_files/ JIGES%20DEC% 202013%2 0CHEN%20HUANG%20%203-28-2014.pdf
  • Demir, E., Gozgor, G., ve Paramati, S. R. (2019). Do Geopolitical Risks Matter For İnbound Tourism ? Eurasian Business Review, 9(2), 183-191. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821-019-00118-9
  • Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M. H., ve Lau, C. K. M. (2020). Asymmetric Effects Of Geopolitical Risks On Turkey's Tourist Arrivals. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 23-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006.
  • Dickey, D. ve Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distributions Of The Estimators For Autoregressive Time Series With A Unit Root. The American Statistical Association, 74, 423-43. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531.
  • Emsen, H. S. (2022). Effects of Geopolitical Risks and Political Uncertainties on Stock Markets: Country Specific New Generation Panel Data Analysis For Developing Asian Countries. Journal of Process Management and New Technologies, 10(1-2), 82-101. https://doi.org/10.5937/jpmnt10-38252
  • Engle, R.F. ve Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-276. https://doi.org/ 10.2307/1913236
  • Ghosh, S. (2021). Geopolitical Risk, Economic Growth, Economic Uncertainty and İnternational İnbound Tourism: An Indian Illustration. Review of Economics and Political Science, 7(1), 2-21. https://doi.org/10.1108/REPS-07-2020-0081
  • Gülcan, N. ve Ceyhan, T. (2022). Jeopolitik Riskin Pay Senedi Fiyatlarına Etkisinin Fourier Yaklaşımıyla Değerlendirilmesi: Türkiye Örneği. İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 14(3), 2531-2545. https://doi.org/10.20491/isarder.2022.1518
  • Hailemariam, A. ve Ivanovski, K. (2021). The Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on US Tourism Net Exports. Tourism Economics, 24(22), 3134-3140. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2021.1876644
  • Hasan, M., Naeem, M. A., Arif, M., Shahzad, S. J. H. ve Nor, S. M. (2020). Geopolitical Risk and Tourism Stocks of Emerging Economies. Sustainability, 12(21), 9261. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12219261
  • Jiang, Y., Tian, G., Wu, Y., ve Mo, B. (2020). Impacts Of Geopolitical Risks and Economic Policy Uncertainty on Chinesetourism-Listed Company Stock. International Journal of Finance & Economics, 2020, 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijfe.
  • Oloko, T. F., Olaniran, A. O. ve Lasisi, L. A. (2021). Hedging Global and Country-Specific Geopolitical Risks With South Korean Stocks: A Predictability Approach. Asian Economics Letters, 2(3), 24418. https://doi.org/10.46557/001c.24418
  • Phillips, P. ve Hansen, B. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I (1) Processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297545
  • Polat, M., Alptürk, Y. ve Gürsoy, S. (2021). Impact Of Geopolitical Risk on BIST Tourism İndex And Tourist Arrivals İn Turkey. Journal of Tourism Theory and Research, 7(2), 77-84. https://doi.org/10.24288/jttr.926617
  • Salisu, A. A., Ogbonna, A. E., Lasisi, L. ve Olaniran, A. (2022). Geopolitical Risk and Stock Market Volatility İn Emerging Markets: A GARCH–MIDAS Approach. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 62, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2022.101755
  • Travel & Tourism Economic Impact | World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) (2022) https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/2022/EIR2022-Global%20Trends.pdf (Erişim: 15.09.2022)
  • Tiwari, A. K., D. Das, ve A. Dutta. (2019). Geopolitical Risk, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Tourist Arrivals: Evidence from a Developing Country. Tourism Management, 75, 323–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2019.06.002
  • Tütüncü, A. (2022). Türkiye’de Turizm Faaliyetlerini Belirleyen Makroekonomik Değişkenlerin Karşılaştırmalı Analizi. Güncel Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(2), 369-388. https://doi.org/10.32572/guntad.1031521
  • Lee, C. C., Olasehinde‐Williams, G. ve Akadiri, S. S. (2021). Geopolitical risk and tourism: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models. International Journal of Tourism Research, 23(1), 26-38. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2389
  • Yang, J., ve Yang, C. (2021). The Impact of Mixed-Frequency Geopolitical Risk on Stock Market Returns. Economic Analysis and Policy, 72, 226-240. https://doi.org/10.1016/ j.eap.2021.08.008
  • Yıldız, M. (2020). The Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Bank Loan Interest Rates in Turkey. Journal of Corporate Governance, Insurance, and Risk Management (JCGIRM), 7(1), 70-86. http://doi.org/10.51410/JCGIRM2019-2-5.
  • Zhang, H., Jiang, Z., Gao, W. ve Yang, C. (2022). Time-Varying İmpact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risk on Tourist Arrivals: Evidence from A Developing Country. Tourism Management Perspectives, 41, 100928. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmp.2021.100928
  • Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm (Erişim: 10.08.2022)
  • BİST Turizm Indeks https://tr.investing.com/indices/ise-tourism (Erişim: 10.08.2022)
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm MAKALELER
Yazarlar

N. Serap Vurur 0000-0003-4339-6474

Letife Özdemir 0000-0002-8636-2277

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Mart 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Sayı: C-iasoS 2022 Özel Sayısı

Kaynak Göster

APA Vurur, N. S., & Özdemir, L. (2023). KÜRESEL VE TÜRKİYE JEOPOLİTİK RİSKLERİN BİST TURİZM ENDEKSİNE ETKİSİNİN KARŞILAŞTIRILMASI. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi(C-iasoS 2022 Özel Sayısı), 163-174. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.1224580


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