THE QUALITY OF GOVERNANCE, COMPOSITION OF PUBLIC EXPENDITURES, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON TURKEY
Öz
The aim of this study
is to analyze the impact the quality of governance and public expenditures on
economic growth in Turkey. The quality of governance and the composition of
public expenditure represents direct and indirect effects on economic growth,
respectively. Linear multiple regression analysis is applied to investigate the
direct relation between quality of governance and economic growth for 2002-2013
period. To explain the indirect effect of the quality of governance on economic
growth, time series analysis is applied for 1960-2012 period in order to
determine the relations between public expenditure composition and economic
growth. According to the results of the analysis of the direct effect, there is
positive and significant relationship between “Regulatory Quality”, “Government
Effectiveness”, “Control of Corruption”, “Voice and Accountability” and
economic growth. According to the results of the analysis of the indirect
effect, education, health, social protection, social expenditure and defense
expenditure caused an increase in economic growth.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Governance Public Expenditures Growth Multiple Variable Regression Time Series Analysis
Kaynakça
- Acemoğlu, D., ve Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty (3. Baskı), Crown Business. Great Britain.
- Acemoglu, D., Robinson, J. A. ve Johnson, S. (2001). The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. The American Economic Review, 91(5) , 1369-1401.
- Akat, A. S. ve Gürsel, S. (2008). Giriş. S. Gürsel (Ed.). Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşiminin Büyüme ve Refah Etkileri (3-18), BETAM, İstanbul.
- Alesina, A., ve Perotti, R. (1997).The Politics of Growth: A Survey. V. Bergtrom (Ed.), Government and Growth (11-49). Oxford University Press.
- Almeida, H., ve Ferreira, D. (2002). Democracy and The Variability of Economic Performance. Economics and Politics, 14(3), 225-257.
- Arısoy, İ., Ünlükaplan, İ. ve Ergen, Z. (2010). Sosyal Harcamalar ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisinde 1960-2005 Dönemine Yönelik Bir Dinamik Analiz. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 398-421.
- Barro, R. J. (1998). Human Capital and Growth in Cross-country Regression, Harvard University. http://www.sofofa.cl/eventos/2002/enero-junio/barro7.5.B.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 17.04.2015).
- Barro, R. J. (1996).Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study, NBER Working Paper, 5698, Cambridge, MA. http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/apcity/unpan027110.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 02.03.2017).
- Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defense in Developing Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280.
- Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries (1. Baskı), Lexington Books, Lexington, MA.
- Burkhart, R. E., ve Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1994). Comparative Democracy: Economic Development Thesis. American Political Science Review, 88(4), 903-910.
- Deger, S., ve Sen S. (1995). Military Expenditure and Developing Countries, Handbook of Defense Economics, 1, 205-307.
- DFID. (2006). Social Protection and Economic Growth in Poor Countries. Social Protection Briefing Note, Series Number 4. Department for International Development, London.
- Dünya Bankası Yönetişim Göstegeleri Erişim Adresi (2017 ). https://www.worldbank.org/
- Glaeser, E. L., La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., ve Shleifer, A. (2004). Do Institutions Cause Growth?. Journal of Economic Growth,9, 271-303.
- Hall, R. E., ve Jones, C. I. (1999). Why Do Some Countries Produce Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 88-116.
- Hanushek, E. A., ve Wöbmann, L. (2010). Education and Economic Growth. International Encyclopedia of Education, 2, 245-252.
- Helliwell, J. F. (1994). Empirical Linkages Between Democracy and Economic Growth. British Journal of Political Science, 24(2), 225-248.
- Hyden, G. (1999). Governance and The Reconstitution of Political Order. R. Joseph (Ed.). State, conflict, and democracy in Africa (179-195). Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
- Isham, J., Kaufmann, D., ve Pritchett, L. H. (1997). Civil Liberties,Democracy, and The Performance of Government Projects. World Bank Economic Review, 11(2), 219–242.
- Johansen, S., ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration - with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
- Kagundu, P. (2006). The Quality of Governance, Composition of Public Expenditures, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis. (Yayımlanmış Doktora Tezi). Georgia State University.
- Karanfil, F., ve Polat, S. (2008). Sağlık ve Eğitim Harcamalarının İllere Göre Karşılaştırmalı İncelemesi. S. Gürsel (Der.). Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşiminin Büyüme ve Refah Etkileri (56-80), BETAM, İstanbul.
- Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., ve Zoido-Lobatón, P. (1999). Governance Matters. Policy Research Working Paper, 4978, The World Bank. Washington, DC.
- Kormendi, Roger C., Meguire,P. G.(1985). Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: Cross-Country Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(2), 141-163.
- Köktaş, E. M. (2001). Demokrasi Ölçümleri Bağlamında Türkiye'de Demokrasi. Türkiye İdare Dergisi, 435, 117-128.
- Kunal, S. (2014). Governance and Development Outcomes in Asia. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, 384, Mandaluyong: Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/31175/ewp-384-governance-development-outcomes-asia.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 5.04.2017).
- Lee, C. C. ve Chang, C. P. (2006). Social Security Expenditure and GDP in OECD Countries: A Cointegrated Panel Analysis. International Economic Journal, 20(3), 303-320.
- Li, H., Xu, L. C., ve Zou, H.F. (2000). Corruption, Income Distribution, and Growth. Economics and Politics, 155-181.
- Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 681-712.
- Murphy, K., Shleifer, A., ve Vishny, R. (1991). The Allocation of Talent: Implications for Growth. Journal of Economics, 106(2), 503-530.
- Pourgerami, A. (1988). The Political Economy of Development: A Cross-National Causality Test of Development-Democracy-Growth Hypothesis. Public Choice, 58(2), 123-141.
- Rebelo, S. (1991). Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth. The Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 500-521.
- Reynolds, L. G. (1983). The Spread of Economic Growth to the Third World: 1850-1980. Journal of Economic Literature, 21(3), 941-980.
- Rodrik, D. (2007). One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth. Princeton University Press.
- Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A. ve Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions Rule:The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development. NBER Working Paper, 02/189. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp02189.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 05.02.2016).
- Rosenau, J. N. (1995). Governance in the Twenty-first Century. Global Governance, 1(1), 13-43.
- Sachs, J. D. (2001). Macroeconomics and Health:Investing in Health for Economic Development. World Health Organization. http://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/42463 (Erişim Tarihi: 15.06.2017).
- Scully, G. W. (1988). The Institutional Framework and Economic Development. Journal of Political Economy. 96(3), 652-662.
- Sen, A. (2000). Development as Freedom(1. Baskı), New York.
- Stockholm Merkezli Barış Merkezi Enstitüsü (2017). Erişim Adresi http://www.sipri.org/
- TCMB Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi (2017) Erişim Adresi. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
- TUİK (2017). Erişim Adresi http://www.tuik.gov.tr/
- World Bank. (2014). Turkey's Transitions. World Bank Report, Report No. 90509. Washington, DC.
- Yılmaz, G. A. (2005). Sosyal Devlet ve Sosyal Harcamalar (1. Baskı), Arıkan Kitap, İstanbul
Öz
Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de yönetişim kalitesi ve kamu
harcamalarının iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaya yöneliktir.
Yönetişim kalitesi iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki doğrudan etkiyi, kamu harcamaları
komposizyonu ise dolaylı etkiyi ifade etmektedir. Yönetişim ile iktisadi büyüme
arasındaki ilişkiler 2002-2013 yıllarına ait verilerle çok değişkenli doğrusal
regresyon analizi kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Yönetişim kalitesi ile
iktisadi büyüme arasındaki dolaylı ilişkiler ise 1960-2012 yılları itibari ile
kamu harcamalarının kompozisyonu ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkileri
açıklamayı amaçlayan zaman serisi analizi çerçevesinde tespit edilmeye
çalışılmaktadır. Doğrudan etkinin analiz edilmesi sonucunda, Türkiye’de
“Düzenleyicilik Kalitesi”, “Hükümetin Etkinliği”, “Yolsuzluğun Önlenmesi”,
“İfade Özgürlüğü ve Hesap Verilebilirlik" göstergeleri ile iktisadi büyüme
arasında pozitif yönde ve anlamlı bir ilişki olduğu bulunmuştur. Dolaylı
etkilerin analiz edilmesi sonucunda ise, eğitim, sağlık, sosyal koruma, sosyal
harcamalar ve savunma harcamalarının iktisadi büyümede bir artışa neden olduğu
sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Yönetişim Kamu Harcamaları Büyüme Çok Değişkenli Doğrusal Regresyon Zaman Serisi Analizi
Kaynakça
- Acemoğlu, D., ve Robinson, J. A. (2012). Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty (3. Baskı), Crown Business. Great Britain.
- Acemoglu, D., Robinson, J. A. ve Johnson, S. (2001). The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. The American Economic Review, 91(5) , 1369-1401.
- Akat, A. S. ve Gürsel, S. (2008). Giriş. S. Gürsel (Ed.). Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşiminin Büyüme ve Refah Etkileri (3-18), BETAM, İstanbul.
- Alesina, A., ve Perotti, R. (1997).The Politics of Growth: A Survey. V. Bergtrom (Ed.), Government and Growth (11-49). Oxford University Press.
- Almeida, H., ve Ferreira, D. (2002). Democracy and The Variability of Economic Performance. Economics and Politics, 14(3), 225-257.
- Arısoy, İ., Ünlükaplan, İ. ve Ergen, Z. (2010). Sosyal Harcamalar ve İktisadi Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisinde 1960-2005 Dönemine Yönelik Bir Dinamik Analiz. Maliye Dergisi, 158, 398-421.
- Barro, R. J. (1998). Human Capital and Growth in Cross-country Regression, Harvard University. http://www.sofofa.cl/eventos/2002/enero-junio/barro7.5.B.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 17.04.2015).
- Barro, R. J. (1996).Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study, NBER Working Paper, 5698, Cambridge, MA. http://unpan1.un.org/intradoc/groups/public/documents/apcity/unpan027110.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 02.03.2017).
- Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defense in Developing Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280.
- Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries (1. Baskı), Lexington Books, Lexington, MA.
- Burkhart, R. E., ve Lewis-Beck, M. S. (1994). Comparative Democracy: Economic Development Thesis. American Political Science Review, 88(4), 903-910.
- Deger, S., ve Sen S. (1995). Military Expenditure and Developing Countries, Handbook of Defense Economics, 1, 205-307.
- DFID. (2006). Social Protection and Economic Growth in Poor Countries. Social Protection Briefing Note, Series Number 4. Department for International Development, London.
- Dünya Bankası Yönetişim Göstegeleri Erişim Adresi (2017 ). https://www.worldbank.org/
- Glaeser, E. L., La Porta, R., Lopez-de-Silanes, F., ve Shleifer, A. (2004). Do Institutions Cause Growth?. Journal of Economic Growth,9, 271-303.
- Hall, R. E., ve Jones, C. I. (1999). Why Do Some Countries Produce Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 88-116.
- Hanushek, E. A., ve Wöbmann, L. (2010). Education and Economic Growth. International Encyclopedia of Education, 2, 245-252.
- Helliwell, J. F. (1994). Empirical Linkages Between Democracy and Economic Growth. British Journal of Political Science, 24(2), 225-248.
- Hyden, G. (1999). Governance and The Reconstitution of Political Order. R. Joseph (Ed.). State, conflict, and democracy in Africa (179-195). Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
- Isham, J., Kaufmann, D., ve Pritchett, L. H. (1997). Civil Liberties,Democracy, and The Performance of Government Projects. World Bank Economic Review, 11(2), 219–242.
- Johansen, S., ve Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration - with Application to the Demand for Money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169-210.
- Kagundu, P. (2006). The Quality of Governance, Composition of Public Expenditures, and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis. (Yayımlanmış Doktora Tezi). Georgia State University.
- Karanfil, F., ve Polat, S. (2008). Sağlık ve Eğitim Harcamalarının İllere Göre Karşılaştırmalı İncelemesi. S. Gürsel (Der.). Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşiminin Büyüme ve Refah Etkileri (56-80), BETAM, İstanbul.
- Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., ve Zoido-Lobatón, P. (1999). Governance Matters. Policy Research Working Paper, 4978, The World Bank. Washington, DC.
- Kormendi, Roger C., Meguire,P. G.(1985). Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: Cross-Country Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(2), 141-163.
- Köktaş, E. M. (2001). Demokrasi Ölçümleri Bağlamında Türkiye'de Demokrasi. Türkiye İdare Dergisi, 435, 117-128.
- Kunal, S. (2014). Governance and Development Outcomes in Asia. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, 384, Mandaluyong: Asian Development Bank. https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/31175/ewp-384-governance-development-outcomes-asia.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 5.04.2017).
- Lee, C. C. ve Chang, C. P. (2006). Social Security Expenditure and GDP in OECD Countries: A Cointegrated Panel Analysis. International Economic Journal, 20(3), 303-320.
- Li, H., Xu, L. C., ve Zou, H.F. (2000). Corruption, Income Distribution, and Growth. Economics and Politics, 155-181.
- Mauro, P. (1995). Corruption and Growth. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 681-712.
- Murphy, K., Shleifer, A., ve Vishny, R. (1991). The Allocation of Talent: Implications for Growth. Journal of Economics, 106(2), 503-530.
- Pourgerami, A. (1988). The Political Economy of Development: A Cross-National Causality Test of Development-Democracy-Growth Hypothesis. Public Choice, 58(2), 123-141.
- Rebelo, S. (1991). Long-Run Policy Analysis and Long-Run Growth. The Journal of Political Economy, 99(3), 500-521.
- Reynolds, L. G. (1983). The Spread of Economic Growth to the Third World: 1850-1980. Journal of Economic Literature, 21(3), 941-980.
- Rodrik, D. (2007). One Economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth. Princeton University Press.
- Rodrik, D., Subramanian, A. ve Trebbi, F. (2004). Institutions Rule:The Primacy of Institutions over Geography and Integration in Economic Development. NBER Working Paper, 02/189. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2002/wp02189.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 05.02.2016).
- Rosenau, J. N. (1995). Governance in the Twenty-first Century. Global Governance, 1(1), 13-43.
- Sachs, J. D. (2001). Macroeconomics and Health:Investing in Health for Economic Development. World Health Organization. http://apps.who.int/iris/handle/10665/42463 (Erişim Tarihi: 15.06.2017).
- Scully, G. W. (1988). The Institutional Framework and Economic Development. Journal of Political Economy. 96(3), 652-662.
- Sen, A. (2000). Development as Freedom(1. Baskı), New York.
- Stockholm Merkezli Barış Merkezi Enstitüsü (2017). Erişim Adresi http://www.sipri.org/
- TCMB Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi (2017) Erişim Adresi. http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/
- TUİK (2017). Erişim Adresi http://www.tuik.gov.tr/
- World Bank. (2014). Turkey's Transitions. World Bank Report, Report No. 90509. Washington, DC.
- Yılmaz, G. A. (2005). Sosyal Devlet ve Sosyal Harcamalar (1. Baskı), Arıkan Kitap, İstanbul
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Bölüm | MAKALELER |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 19 Eylül 2018 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2018 Prof. Dr. Harun TERZİ Özel Sayısı |
Cited By
Yükselen ve Büyümede Öncü Ekonomilerde Finansal Göstergeler İyi Yönetimi Etkiler mi?
Abant Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
https://doi.org/10.11616/asbi.1218441
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