Doğrusal Olmayan Birim Kök Testleri Kullanılarak 21 OECD Ülkesinde Sağlık Harcamaları Yakınsamasının Test Edilmesi
Öz
Amaç: Bu çalışma, 1975 ve 2019 yılları için 21 OECD ülkesinde sağlık harcamalarının stokastik zaman serisi davranışını bir dizi güncel birim kök testi kullanarak analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır.
Gereç ve Yöntem: Bu çalışmada, 21 OECD ülkesinin sağlık harcaması verilerinin bu ülkelerin sağlık harcamaları arasında bir yakınsama olup olmadığını ampirik olarak test etmek için doğrusal ADF birim kök testi ve sekiz ilgili doğrusal olmayan birim kök testi kullanılmıştır.
Bulgular: Ampirik bulgular, 21 OECD ülkesinin 20'sinde sağlık harcamalarının durağanlığını desteklemektedir.
Sonuç: OECD ülkelerinin çoğunda sağlık yakınsama hipotezi doğrulanmış olup, sağlık harcamaları şoklarının ülke düzeyinde sağlık harcamaları üzerinde yalnızca geçici etkileri olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu ampirik çalışma çok önemli politika sonuçları sunmaktadır. Politika otoritelerinin alacağı politika tedbirlerinin sağlık harcamaları verisindeki olası doğrusal olmayanlığı göz ardı edilerek yapılamayacağı çalışmanın ampirik kısmında teyit edilmiştir. Sonuç kısmında sıralanan politika önerilerine alt rejim dönemlerinde daha fazla yatırım yapılması ve yüksek rejim dönemlerde ise var olanın sürdürülmesinin sağlık harcamaları yakınsaması için yeter koşul sağladığı belirlenmiştir. Bunun yanı sıra Japonya ve Güney Kore gibi ülkelerde rejimden bağımsız yapısal değişimlerin sağlık harcamaları yakınsamasında da değişim yarattığı belirlenmiştir. Bu tarz ülkelerde yapısal değişimler gözetilerek yatırımların yapılması önem arz etmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Sağlık harcamaları yakınsaması OECD ülkeleri Doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri
Kaynakça
- World Health Organization. Global expenditure on health: Public spending on the rise?. Geneva: WHO; 2021. p. 2.
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Health at a glance 2021: OECD indicators. Paris:OECD Publishing; 2021.p. 190.
- Payne JE, Anderson S, Lee J, Cho MH. Do per capita health care expenditures converge among OECD countries? Evidence from unit root tests with level and trend-shifts. Applied Economics. 2015;47(52):5600–13.
- Weisbrod B. The health care quadrilemma: an essay on technological change, insurance, quality of care, and cost containment. Journal of Economic Literature. 1991;29(2):523–552.
- Newhouse JP. Medical care costs: how much welfare loss?. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 1992;6(3):3–21.
- Narayan PK. Do health expenditures ’catch-up’? Evidence from OECD countries. Health Econ. 2007;16(10):993–1008.
- Granger CWJ, Teräsvirta T. Modelling non-linear economic relationships. Advance text in econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press. 1993.
- Perron P. The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica. 1989;57:1361–1401.
- Albulescu CT. Health Care Expenditure in the European Union Countries: New Insights about the Convergence Process. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(4):1991.
- Kızılkaya F, Dağ M. Convergence of Health Expenditures in OECD Countries: Evidence from Fourier Unit Root Test with Break. E-Journal of Yaşar University. 2021;16(62):587–600.
- Akarsu G, Cafri R, Bidirdi H. Are public-private components of health care expenditures converging among OECD countries? Evidence from a nonlinear panel unit root test. Sosyoekonomi. 2019; 27(41): 89-112.
- Lee J, Tieslau M. Panel LM unit root tests with level and trend shifts. Economic Modelling. 2019;80:1–10.
- Albulescu C, Oros C, Tiwari AK. Is there any convergence in health expenditures across EU countries?. Economics Bulletin. 2017; 37(3): 2095-2101.
- Nghiem SH, Connelly LB. Convergence and determinants of health expenditures in OECD countries. Health Econ Rev. 2017;7(1):29.
- Phillips PCB, Sul D. Transition modeling and econometric convergence tests. Econometrica. 2007;75(6):1771–855.
- Pekkurnaz D. Convergence of health expenditure in OECD countries: Evidence from a nonlinear asymmetric heterogeneous panel unit root test. Journal of Reviews on Global Economics. 2015;4:76–86.
- Lau CKM, Fung KWT, Pugalis L. Is health care expenditure across Europe converging? Findings from the application of a nonlinear panel unit root test. Eurasian Business Review. 2014;4(2):137-156.
- Aslan A. Convergence of per capita health care expenditures in OECD countries. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. 2009;24:48-53.
- Omay T, Emirmahmutoglu F, Hasanov M. Structural break, nonlinearity, and asymmetry: A re-examination of PPP proposition. Applied Economics. 2018;50(12):1289–1308.
- Sollis R. A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries. Economic Modelling. 2009;26:118–125.
- Leybourne S, Newbold P, Vougas D. Unit roots and smooth transitions. Journal of Time Series Analysis. 1998;19(1):83–97.
- Omay T, Corakci A, Emirmahmutoglu F. Real interest rates: Nonlinearity and structural breaks. Empirical Economics. 2017;52(1);283–307.
- Kapetanios G, Shin Y, Snell A. Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics. 2003;112:359–379.
- Omay T. Fractional frequency flexible Fourier form to approximate smooth breaks in unit root testing. Economics Letters. 2015;134:123–126.
- Omay T, Yildirim D. Nonlinearity and smooth breaks in unit root testing. Econometrics Letters. 2014;1(1): 2–9.
- Canarella G, Gupta R, Miller SM, Omay T. Does real UK GDP have a unit root? Evidence from a multi-century perspective. Applied Economics, 2020;52(10):1070–1087.
- Becker R, Enders W, Hurn S. A general test for time dependence in parameters. J. Appl. Econometrics. 2004;19:899–906.
- Luukkonen R, Saikkonen P, Teräsvirta T. Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive models. Biometrika. 1988;70:491–499.
- Becker R, Enders W, Lee J. A general test for time dependence in parameters. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2004;19:899–906.
- Shahbaz M, Omay T, Roubaud D. Sharp and smooth breaks in unit root testing of renewable energy consumption. The Journal of Energy and Development. 2018;44(1/2):5–40.
- Corakci A, Emirmahmutoglu F, Omay T. Re-examining the real interest rate parity hypothesis (RIPH) using panel unit root tests with asymmetry and cross-section dependence. Empirica. 2017;44(1):91–120.
- Omay T, Shahbaz M, Hasanov, M. Testing PPP hypothesis under temporary structural breaks and asymmetric dynamic adjustments. Applied Economics. 2020;52(32):3479–3497.
Öz
Objective: The purpose of this study is to analyze the stochastic time series behaviour of health expenditure in the 21 OECD countries between 1975 and 2019 using a variety of state-of-the-art (cutting-edge) unit root tests.
Methods: In this study, the linear ADF unit root test and eight relevant nonlinear unit root tests are used to empirically estimate whether the 21 OECD countries’ health expenditure data show convergence.
Results: The empirical findings are in support the stationarity of health expenditure in 20 of the 21 OECD countries.
Conclusions: Health convergence hypothesis is confirmed in most OECD countries, indicating that health expenditure shocks have solely temporary effects on country-level health expenditure. The empirical study provides significant policy implications. The empirical part of the study indicated that policy measures chosen by the policymakers cannot be made without considering possible nonlinearities in health expenditure data. More investment in the policy proposals stated in the conclusion section in the low regime years, as well as the continuation of current ones in the high regime periods, have been determined to offer appropriate conditions for health spending convergence. Furthermore, it has been determined that structural changes outside of the regime have resulted in a change in health expenditure convergence in countries such as Japan and South Korea. It is essential to invest in these countries while taking into account the periods of structural change.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Health expenditure convergence OECD countries Nonlinear unit root tests
Kaynakça
- World Health Organization. Global expenditure on health: Public spending on the rise?. Geneva: WHO; 2021. p. 2.
- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Health at a glance 2021: OECD indicators. Paris:OECD Publishing; 2021.p. 190.
- Payne JE, Anderson S, Lee J, Cho MH. Do per capita health care expenditures converge among OECD countries? Evidence from unit root tests with level and trend-shifts. Applied Economics. 2015;47(52):5600–13.
- Weisbrod B. The health care quadrilemma: an essay on technological change, insurance, quality of care, and cost containment. Journal of Economic Literature. 1991;29(2):523–552.
- Newhouse JP. Medical care costs: how much welfare loss?. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 1992;6(3):3–21.
- Narayan PK. Do health expenditures ’catch-up’? Evidence from OECD countries. Health Econ. 2007;16(10):993–1008.
- Granger CWJ, Teräsvirta T. Modelling non-linear economic relationships. Advance text in econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press. 1993.
- Perron P. The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica. 1989;57:1361–1401.
- Albulescu CT. Health Care Expenditure in the European Union Countries: New Insights about the Convergence Process. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(4):1991.
- Kızılkaya F, Dağ M. Convergence of Health Expenditures in OECD Countries: Evidence from Fourier Unit Root Test with Break. E-Journal of Yaşar University. 2021;16(62):587–600.
- Akarsu G, Cafri R, Bidirdi H. Are public-private components of health care expenditures converging among OECD countries? Evidence from a nonlinear panel unit root test. Sosyoekonomi. 2019; 27(41): 89-112.
- Lee J, Tieslau M. Panel LM unit root tests with level and trend shifts. Economic Modelling. 2019;80:1–10.
- Albulescu C, Oros C, Tiwari AK. Is there any convergence in health expenditures across EU countries?. Economics Bulletin. 2017; 37(3): 2095-2101.
- Nghiem SH, Connelly LB. Convergence and determinants of health expenditures in OECD countries. Health Econ Rev. 2017;7(1):29.
- Phillips PCB, Sul D. Transition modeling and econometric convergence tests. Econometrica. 2007;75(6):1771–855.
- Pekkurnaz D. Convergence of health expenditure in OECD countries: Evidence from a nonlinear asymmetric heterogeneous panel unit root test. Journal of Reviews on Global Economics. 2015;4:76–86.
- Lau CKM, Fung KWT, Pugalis L. Is health care expenditure across Europe converging? Findings from the application of a nonlinear panel unit root test. Eurasian Business Review. 2014;4(2):137-156.
- Aslan A. Convergence of per capita health care expenditures in OECD countries. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics. 2009;24:48-53.
- Omay T, Emirmahmutoglu F, Hasanov M. Structural break, nonlinearity, and asymmetry: A re-examination of PPP proposition. Applied Economics. 2018;50(12):1289–1308.
- Sollis R. A simple unit root test against asymmetric STAR nonlinearity with an application to real exchange rates in Nordic countries. Economic Modelling. 2009;26:118–125.
- Leybourne S, Newbold P, Vougas D. Unit roots and smooth transitions. Journal of Time Series Analysis. 1998;19(1):83–97.
- Omay T, Corakci A, Emirmahmutoglu F. Real interest rates: Nonlinearity and structural breaks. Empirical Economics. 2017;52(1);283–307.
- Kapetanios G, Shin Y, Snell A. Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of Econometrics. 2003;112:359–379.
- Omay T. Fractional frequency flexible Fourier form to approximate smooth breaks in unit root testing. Economics Letters. 2015;134:123–126.
- Omay T, Yildirim D. Nonlinearity and smooth breaks in unit root testing. Econometrics Letters. 2014;1(1): 2–9.
- Canarella G, Gupta R, Miller SM, Omay T. Does real UK GDP have a unit root? Evidence from a multi-century perspective. Applied Economics, 2020;52(10):1070–1087.
- Becker R, Enders W, Hurn S. A general test for time dependence in parameters. J. Appl. Econometrics. 2004;19:899–906.
- Luukkonen R, Saikkonen P, Teräsvirta T. Testing linearity against smooth transition autoregressive models. Biometrika. 1988;70:491–499.
- Becker R, Enders W, Lee J. A general test for time dependence in parameters. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 2004;19:899–906.
- Shahbaz M, Omay T, Roubaud D. Sharp and smooth breaks in unit root testing of renewable energy consumption. The Journal of Energy and Development. 2018;44(1/2):5–40.
- Corakci A, Emirmahmutoglu F, Omay T. Re-examining the real interest rate parity hypothesis (RIPH) using panel unit root tests with asymmetry and cross-section dependence. Empirica. 2017;44(1):91–120.
- Omay T, Shahbaz M, Hasanov, M. Testing PPP hypothesis under temporary structural breaks and asymmetric dynamic adjustments. Applied Economics. 2020;52(32):3479–3497.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Sağlık Kurumları Yönetimi |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 28 Nisan 2022 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 20 Nisan 2022 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2022 Cilt: 14 Sayı: S1 |
