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Türkiye’de 18 Yaş Altındakilerin Bireysel Emeklilik Sistemine Katılımı: Bir Büyüme Tahmini

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 395 - 407, 02.08.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1167579

Öz

Türkiye’de bireysel emeklilik sistemi, 2022 yıl sonu itibariyle 14.5 milyon katılımcıya ve 433.4 milyar TL’lik (26.2 milyar dolar) fon büyüklüğüne ulaşırken, fon varlıklarının GSYH’ye oranı yalnızca %3 civarındadır. Varlık/GSYH oranının düşük olmasının ana nedenleri, katılımcıların ödedikleri katkı payının ve sistemde geçirdikleri sürenin düşük olmasıdır. Türkiye, 2021 yılında 18 yaş altındakilerin bireysel emeklilik planlarına katılımını sağlayan bir düzenlemeyi hayata geçirmiştir. Düzenlemenin temel amacı, sistemin kapsama oranını artırmak ve insanların daha uzun süre tasarruf etmesini sağlamaktır. Düzenleme kısa vadede katılımcı sayısının artmasını sağlamışsa da bireysel emeklilik fon varlıkları üzerindeki uzun vadeli etkileri belirsizdir. Çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de 18 yaş altındakilerin bireysel emeklilik sistemine katılımının fon varlıkları üzerindeki etkisini ölçmektir. Türkiye’de bireysel emeklilik sisteminin gelecek on yıldaki büyümesini tahmin etmek için tek değişkenli zaman serisi yöntemi kullanılmıştır. Fon büyüklüğü tahmin edilirken, Türkiye’de bireysel emeklilik sisteminin 2003 – 2021 yılları arasındaki fon büyüklüğü, yıllık net katkı payı tutarı, büyüme hızı ve getiri oranı verilerinden yararlanılmıştır. Sonuçlar, önümüzdeki on yılın sonunda, 18 yaş altı katılımcıların varlıklarının toplam varlıkların %7’sini oluşturacağını ve yıllık net katkı payının %22’sinin 18 yaş altındakiler tarafından ödeneceğini göstermektedir.

Kaynakça

  • Açıkgöz, E., Uygurtürk, H. & Korkmaz, T. (2015). Analysis of factors affecting growth of pension mutual funds in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(2), 427-433. Retrieved from https:// dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/issue/31969/352140?publisher=http-www-cag-edu-tr-ilhan-ozturk google scholar
  • Amaglobeli, M. D., Chai, H., Dabla-Norris, M. E., Dybczak, M. K., Soto, M., & Tieman, A. F. (2019). The future of saving: the role of pension system design in an aging world. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2019/01/09/The-Future-of-Saving-The-Role-of-Pension-System-Design-in-an-Aging-World-45138 google scholar
  • Bayrakçı, E. & Aksoy, E. (2019). Gri tahmin yöntemi: Bireysel emeklilik sistemi üzerine bir uygulama [Grey estimation method: An application on individual pension system]. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1), 20-33. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/asead/issue/42912/512740 google scholar
  • Baaquie, B. E. (2007). Quantum Finance: Path Integrals and Hamiltonians for Options and Interest Rates. New York, NY:Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Clements, B., Dybczak, K., Gaspar, V., Gupta, S., & Soto, M. (2018). The fiscal consequences of shrinking and ageing populations. Ageing International, 43(4), 391-414. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12126-017-9306-6 google scholar
  • Çemrek, F., & Demir, Ö. (2021). Forecasting the returns of pension investment funds in Turkey with artificial neural network. Cumhuriyet Science Journal, 42(4), 942-950. Retrieved from http://csj.cumhuriyet.edu.tr/en/ pub/issue/67390/1009362 google scholar
  • Elveren, A. Y., & Hsu, S. (2007). Gender gaps in the individual pension system in Turkey. Working Paper No. 200706. The University of Utah, Department of Economics. Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/ handle/10419/64431 google scholar
  • Hardle, W. K., & Mysickova, A. (2009). Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system. SFB 649 Discussion Paper 2009-009. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2894276 google scholar
  • Kantz, H., & Schreiber, T. (2003). Nonlinear Time Series Analysis. New York, NY:Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Karataş, M., & Dalkılıç, N. (2022). Bireysel emeklilik şirketlerinin fon yapılarının enflasyon ile nedensellik ilişkisi [Evaluation of the fund structures of private pension companies with inflation]. Hitit Ekonomi ve Politika Dergisi, 2(1), 168-180. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/hepdergi/issue/71023/1110071 google scholar
  • Kılıç, E. (2014). Ekonomik öncü göstergelerinin bes katılımcı sayısı üzerindeki etkisi [Impact of leading economic indicators on the number of private pension system contributors]. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, (102), 59-76. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.519264 google scholar
  • Maccioni, A. F., & Bitinas, A. (2013). Lithuanian pension system’s reforms following demographic and social transitions. Working Paper CRENoS 201315. Centre for North South Economic Research, University ofCagliari and Sassari. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cns/cnscwp/201315.html google scholar
  • Müminoğlu, O., & Teker, S. (2005). A solution for the aged Turkish social security system: private pension funds. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(13), 16-38. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/esosder/ issue/6127/82179 google scholar
  • OECD. (2021). Pensions at a Glance 2021: OECD and G20 Indicators. OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi. org/10.1787/ca401ebd-en google scholar
  • OECD. (2022). Pension Markets in Focus 2021. Retrieved from http://www.oecd.org/finance/ pensionmarketsinfocus.htm google scholar
  • Pension Monitoring Center [PMC]. (2023a). Private Pension Summary Data 2022. Retrieved from https://egm.org. tr/bilgi-merkezi/istatistikler/ google scholar
  • Pension Monitoring Center [PMC]. (2023b). Distribution of Contracts by Seniority 2021. Retrieved from https:// egm.org.tr/bilgi-merkezi/istatistikler/ google scholar
  • Pension Monitoring Center [PMC]. (2023c). Under 18-year-olds Participants Statistics. Retrieved from https://egm. org.tr/bilgi-merkezi/istatistikler/ google scholar
  • Selim, S. & Çelik, O. (2014). Bireysel emeklilik fonlarini belirleyen faktörler: OECD örneği [The determinants of individual pension funds: the case of OECD]. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 14(28), 188-208. https:// doi.org/10.30976/susead.302207 google scholar
  • Smirlock, M. (1980). Private pension fund assets: Projected growth to 1990. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 47(2), 321-330. https://doi.org/10.2307/252335 google scholar
  • Teraesvirta, T., Lin, C. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1993). Power of the neural network linearity test. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 14(2), 209-220. https://doi.Org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.1993.tb00139.x google scholar
  • The Turkey Insurance and Private Pension Regulation and Supervision Authority [IPRSA]. (2022). Annual Report About Insurance and Private Pension Activities 2021. Retrieved from https://seddk.gov.tr/upload/doc/2021-sigortacilik-ve-BES-faaliyet-raporu.pdf google scholar
  • Tomas, I. (2020). A stochastic forecast for the Croatian pension system. Public Sector Economics, 44(1), 41-98. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.44.1.2 google scholar
  • Zor, I., & Aslanoğlu, S. (2005). Kurumsal yatırımcı olarak özel emeklilik fonları: Türkiye’de oluşturulan sisteme yönelik değerlendirme ve geleceğe yönelik bir tahmin [Private pension funds as instituti onal investors: The evaluation of Turkish system and its future]. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (26), 184-197. Retrieved from https://acikerisim.kku.edu.tr:8443/xmlui/handle/20.500.12587/445 google scholar
  • TURKSTAT. (2020). Life Tables 2017-2019. Retrieved from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Hayat-Tablolari-2017-2019-33711 google scholar
  • Woolson, R. F. (2007). Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Wiley Encyclopedia of Clinical Trials, 1-3. https://doi. org/10.1002/9780471462422.eoct979 google scholar

Participation of under-18-year-olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2, 395 - 407, 02.08.2023
https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1167579

Öz

While the private pension system in Turkey reached 14.5 million participants and 433.4 billion TL ($26.2 bn) assets by the end of 2022, the ratio of assets to GDP is only around 3%. The main reasons for the low asset/GDP ratio are the limited contributions and the low average seniority of contract. In 2021, Turkey implemented a regulation that allowed the participation of under-18-year-olds in private pension plans. The main purpose of the regulation was to increase the coverage rate of the system and to get people to save for longer. Although the regulation enabled the number of participants to increase in the short term, its longterm effects on private pension assets are uncertain. The aim of the study is to measure the effect of the participation of under-18-year-olds onprivate pension assets in Turkey. The univariate time series method was used to predict the growth of the private pension system in Turkey for the next ten years. The prediction relied on the data of the private pension system’s asset size, annual net annual contribution, growth rate, and rate of return between 2003 and 2021 in Turkey. The results showed that by the end of 10 years, the assets of under-18-year-olds would account for 7% of the total private pension assets and that 22% of the annual contribution would be paid by under-18-year-olds.

Kaynakça

  • Açıkgöz, E., Uygurtürk, H. & Korkmaz, T. (2015). Analysis of factors affecting growth of pension mutual funds in Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(2), 427-433. Retrieved from https:// dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijefi/issue/31969/352140?publisher=http-www-cag-edu-tr-ilhan-ozturk google scholar
  • Amaglobeli, M. D., Chai, H., Dabla-Norris, M. E., Dybczak, M. K., Soto, M., & Tieman, A. F. (2019). The future of saving: the role of pension system design in an aging world. International Monetary Fund. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2019/01/09/The-Future-of-Saving-The-Role-of-Pension-System-Design-in-an-Aging-World-45138 google scholar
  • Bayrakçı, E. & Aksoy, E. (2019). Gri tahmin yöntemi: Bireysel emeklilik sistemi üzerine bir uygulama [Grey estimation method: An application on individual pension system]. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(1), 20-33. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/asead/issue/42912/512740 google scholar
  • Baaquie, B. E. (2007). Quantum Finance: Path Integrals and Hamiltonians for Options and Interest Rates. New York, NY:Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Clements, B., Dybczak, K., Gaspar, V., Gupta, S., & Soto, M. (2018). The fiscal consequences of shrinking and ageing populations. Ageing International, 43(4), 391-414. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12126-017-9306-6 google scholar
  • Çemrek, F., & Demir, Ö. (2021). Forecasting the returns of pension investment funds in Turkey with artificial neural network. Cumhuriyet Science Journal, 42(4), 942-950. Retrieved from http://csj.cumhuriyet.edu.tr/en/ pub/issue/67390/1009362 google scholar
  • Elveren, A. Y., & Hsu, S. (2007). Gender gaps in the individual pension system in Turkey. Working Paper No. 200706. The University of Utah, Department of Economics. Retrieved from https://www.econstor.eu/ handle/10419/64431 google scholar
  • Hardle, W. K., & Mysickova, A. (2009). Stochastic population forecast for Germany and its consequence for the German pension system. SFB 649 Discussion Paper 2009-009. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2894276 google scholar
  • Kantz, H., & Schreiber, T. (2003). Nonlinear Time Series Analysis. New York, NY:Cambridge University Press. google scholar
  • Karataş, M., & Dalkılıç, N. (2022). Bireysel emeklilik şirketlerinin fon yapılarının enflasyon ile nedensellik ilişkisi [Evaluation of the fund structures of private pension companies with inflation]. Hitit Ekonomi ve Politika Dergisi, 2(1), 168-180. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/hepdergi/issue/71023/1110071 google scholar
  • Kılıç, E. (2014). Ekonomik öncü göstergelerinin bes katılımcı sayısı üzerindeki etkisi [Impact of leading economic indicators on the number of private pension system contributors]. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, (102), 59-76. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.519264 google scholar
  • Maccioni, A. F., & Bitinas, A. (2013). Lithuanian pension system’s reforms following demographic and social transitions. Working Paper CRENoS 201315. Centre for North South Economic Research, University ofCagliari and Sassari. Retrieved from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cns/cnscwp/201315.html google scholar
  • Müminoğlu, O., & Teker, S. (2005). A solution for the aged Turkish social security system: private pension funds. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(13), 16-38. Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/esosder/ issue/6127/82179 google scholar
  • OECD. (2021). Pensions at a Glance 2021: OECD and G20 Indicators. OECD Publishing, Paris. https://doi. org/10.1787/ca401ebd-en google scholar
  • OECD. (2022). Pension Markets in Focus 2021. Retrieved from http://www.oecd.org/finance/ pensionmarketsinfocus.htm google scholar
  • Pension Monitoring Center [PMC]. (2023a). Private Pension Summary Data 2022. Retrieved from https://egm.org. tr/bilgi-merkezi/istatistikler/ google scholar
  • Pension Monitoring Center [PMC]. (2023b). Distribution of Contracts by Seniority 2021. Retrieved from https:// egm.org.tr/bilgi-merkezi/istatistikler/ google scholar
  • Pension Monitoring Center [PMC]. (2023c). Under 18-year-olds Participants Statistics. Retrieved from https://egm. org.tr/bilgi-merkezi/istatistikler/ google scholar
  • Selim, S. & Çelik, O. (2014). Bireysel emeklilik fonlarini belirleyen faktörler: OECD örneği [The determinants of individual pension funds: the case of OECD]. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 14(28), 188-208. https:// doi.org/10.30976/susead.302207 google scholar
  • Smirlock, M. (1980). Private pension fund assets: Projected growth to 1990. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 47(2), 321-330. https://doi.org/10.2307/252335 google scholar
  • Teraesvirta, T., Lin, C. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1993). Power of the neural network linearity test. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 14(2), 209-220. https://doi.Org/10.1111/j.1467-9892.1993.tb00139.x google scholar
  • The Turkey Insurance and Private Pension Regulation and Supervision Authority [IPRSA]. (2022). Annual Report About Insurance and Private Pension Activities 2021. Retrieved from https://seddk.gov.tr/upload/doc/2021-sigortacilik-ve-BES-faaliyet-raporu.pdf google scholar
  • Tomas, I. (2020). A stochastic forecast for the Croatian pension system. Public Sector Economics, 44(1), 41-98. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.44.1.2 google scholar
  • Zor, I., & Aslanoğlu, S. (2005). Kurumsal yatırımcı olarak özel emeklilik fonları: Türkiye’de oluşturulan sisteme yönelik değerlendirme ve geleceğe yönelik bir tahmin [Private pension funds as instituti onal investors: The evaluation of Turkish system and its future]. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (26), 184-197. Retrieved from https://acikerisim.kku.edu.tr:8443/xmlui/handle/20.500.12587/445 google scholar
  • TURKSTAT. (2020). Life Tables 2017-2019. Retrieved from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Hayat-Tablolari-2017-2019-33711 google scholar
  • Woolson, R. F. (2007). Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Wiley Encyclopedia of Clinical Trials, 1-3. https://doi. org/10.1002/9780471462422.eoct979 google scholar
Toplam 26 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm RESEARCH ARTICLE
Yazarlar

Hasan Meral 0000-0002-2079-0674

İsmail Dilek Bu kişi benim 0000-0002-9088-764X

Yayımlanma Tarihi 2 Ağustos 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 27 Ağustos 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Meral, H., & Dilek, İ. (2023). Participation of under-18-year-olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, 10(2), 395-407. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1167579
AMA Meral H, Dilek İ. Participation of under-18-year-olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation. JEPR. Ağustos 2023;10(2):395-407. doi:10.26650/JEPR1167579
Chicago Meral, Hasan, ve İsmail Dilek. “Participation of under-18-Year-Olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 10, sy. 2 (Ağustos 2023): 395-407. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1167579.
EndNote Meral H, Dilek İ (01 Ağustos 2023) Participation of under-18-year-olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 10 2 395–407.
IEEE H. Meral ve İ. Dilek, “Participation of under-18-year-olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation”, JEPR, c. 10, sy. 2, ss. 395–407, 2023, doi: 10.26650/JEPR1167579.
ISNAD Meral, Hasan - Dilek, İsmail. “Participation of under-18-Year-Olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches 10/2 (Ağustos 2023), 395-407. https://doi.org/10.26650/JEPR1167579.
JAMA Meral H, Dilek İ. Participation of under-18-year-olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation. JEPR. 2023;10:395–407.
MLA Meral, Hasan ve İsmail Dilek. “Participation of under-18-Year-Olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation”. Journal of Economic Policy Researches, c. 10, sy. 2, 2023, ss. 395-07, doi:10.26650/JEPR1167579.
Vancouver Meral H, Dilek İ. Participation of under-18-year-olds in the Private Pension System in Turkey: A Growth Estimation. JEPR. 2023;10(2):395-407.