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The Effect of the Budget Deficit on Current Deficit, Economic Growth and Inflation in Some Developing Countries Implementing Fiscal Rule

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 52 - 58, 01.07.2021

Yasin Karadeniz

Öz

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of budget deficit on current account deficit, economic growth and inflation in the period 1994-2019 in 14 developing countries applying fiscal rules. Panel data models that take into account heterogeneity and cross-section dependence were used in the analysis. According to the results achieved; revealed that the budget deficit has an increasing effect on the current account deficit and a decreasing effect on the growth rate. On the other hand, no significant effect was detected on the inflation rate.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fiscal Rule Current Account Deficit Inflation Panel Data Analysis Budget Deficit

Kaynakça

  • Ahmad H.A., Aworinde O.B., ve Martin, C. (2015). Threshold Cointegration and the Short-Run Dynamics of Twin Deficit Hypothesis in African Countries, The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 12(2), 80–91.
  • Arjomand, M., Emami, K. ve Salimi, F. (2016). Growth and Productivity; the Role of Budget Deficit in the MENA Selected Countries, Procedia Economics and Finance, 36, 345-352.
  • Ayhan, F. ve Mangır, F.(2019). OECD Ülkelerinde İkiz Açık Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Panel Veri Analizi, Turkish Studies - Social Sciences, 14(5), 2011 - 2026.
  • Ball, L. & Mankiw, N. G. (1995). What Do Budget Deficits Do?, NBER Working Paper Series, No:5263.
  • Barışık, S. ve Kesikoğlu, F. (2010). Makro ekonomik değişken olarak bütçe açığı-cari açık ilişkisi: Gelişmekte olan piyasalar örneği, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 25(294), 101-119.
  • Barro, R. J. (1989). The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3 (2): 37-54.
  • Cottarelli, C., Griffiths, M. ve Moghadam, R. (1998). The nonmometary Determinants of Inflation: A Panel Data Study, IMF Working Paper, No.98/23.
  • Eberhardt, M. ve Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. MPRA Paper 17692, University Library of Munich.
  • Hamilton, L. C. (1991). “How robust is robust regression?” Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, 1(2), 21-26.
  • IMF Fiscal Rules Dataset (2017). https://www.imf.org/external/ datamapper/fiscalrules/map/map.htm (10 Ocak 2020 tarihinde erişildi).
  • IMF International Financial Statistic (2021). https://data.imf.org/ ?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b (12 Ocak 2021 tarihinde erişildi).
  • Karras, G. (1994). Macroeconomic effects of budget deficits: further international evidence, Journal of International Money and Finance, 13(2), 190-210.
  • Lledó, V., Yoon, S., Fang, X., Mbaye, S. ve Kim, Y. (2017). Fiscal Rules at a Glance, https://www.imf.org/external/ datamapper/ fiscalrules/ Fiscal%20Rules%20at%20a%20Glance%20-%20Background%20 Paper.pdf (10 Ocak 2020 tarihinde erişildi).
  • Mohammadi, H. (2004). Budget Deficit and the Current Account Balance: New Evidence From Panle Data, Journal of Economics and Finance, 28(1), 39-45.
  • Molocwa, G. A., Khamfula, Y. ve Cheteni, P.(2018). Budget Deficits, Investment and Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration Approach, Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(3), 182-189.
  • Navaratnam, R. ve Mayandy, K. (2016). Causal Nexus Between Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from South Asia, International Journal for Innovation Education and Research, 4(8), 1-19.
  • Nelson, M. A. ve Singh, R. D. (1994). The Deficit-Growth Connection: Some Recent Evidence from Developing Countries, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 43(1), 167-191.
  • Nguyen, V. B. (2015). Effects of Fiscal Deficit and Money M2 Supply on Inflation: Evidence From Selected Economies of Asia, Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 20(38), 49-53.
  • Özçalık, M. ve Erataş, F. (2014). İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri İçin Bir Örnek, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 22, 136-151.
  • Piersanti, G. (2000). Current Account Dynamics and Expected Future Budget Deficits: Some International Evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 19(2), 255-271.
  • Sargent, T. J. & Wallace, N. (1981). Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic, Federal Reserv Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 5(3), 1-17.
  • Vamvoukas, G. ve Spilioti, S. N. (2015). The Effects of Budget Deficits on Current Accounts in the EMU, Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 12(4), 115-122.
  • Volcker, P. A. (1984). Facing up to the Twin Deficits, Challenge, 27(1), 4–9.
  • World Development Indicators (2021). https://databank.worldbank.org/ source/ world-development-indicators (12 Ocak 2021 tarihinde erişildi).
  • World Economic Outlook Database (2020). https://www.imf.org/en/ Publications/SPROLLs/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort =%40imfdate%20descending (12 Ocak 2021 tarihinde erişildi).
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi (Stata Uygulamalı), İstanbul: Beta
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, J. Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.

Mali Kural Uygulayan Bazı Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Bütçe Açığının Cari Açık, Ekonomik Büyüme Ve Enflasyon Üzerine Etkisi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 52 - 58, 01.07.2021

Yasin Karadeniz

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, mali kural uygulayan gelişmekte olan 14 ülkede 1994-2019 döneminde, bütçe açığının cari açık, ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Analizin gerçekleştirilmesinde heterojenliği ve yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan panel veri modellerinden faydalanılmıştır. Ulaşılan sonuçlar; bütçe açığının, cari açık üzerinde arttırıcı, büyüme oranı üzerinde ise azaltıcı etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymuştur. Enflasyon oranı üzerinde ise anlamlı bir etki tespit edilememiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Mali Kural Cari Açık Enflasyon Panel Veri Analizi Bütçe Açığı

Kaynakça

  • Ahmad H.A., Aworinde O.B., ve Martin, C. (2015). Threshold Cointegration and the Short-Run Dynamics of Twin Deficit Hypothesis in African Countries, The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, 12(2), 80–91.
  • Arjomand, M., Emami, K. ve Salimi, F. (2016). Growth and Productivity; the Role of Budget Deficit in the MENA Selected Countries, Procedia Economics and Finance, 36, 345-352.
  • Ayhan, F. ve Mangır, F.(2019). OECD Ülkelerinde İkiz Açık Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Panel Veri Analizi, Turkish Studies - Social Sciences, 14(5), 2011 - 2026.
  • Ball, L. & Mankiw, N. G. (1995). What Do Budget Deficits Do?, NBER Working Paper Series, No:5263.
  • Barışık, S. ve Kesikoğlu, F. (2010). Makro ekonomik değişken olarak bütçe açığı-cari açık ilişkisi: Gelişmekte olan piyasalar örneği, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 25(294), 101-119.
  • Barro, R. J. (1989). The Ricardian Approach to Budget Deficits, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 3 (2): 37-54.
  • Cottarelli, C., Griffiths, M. ve Moghadam, R. (1998). The nonmometary Determinants of Inflation: A Panel Data Study, IMF Working Paper, No.98/23.
  • Eberhardt, M. ve Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. MPRA Paper 17692, University Library of Munich.
  • Hamilton, L. C. (1991). “How robust is robust regression?” Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, 1(2), 21-26.
  • IMF Fiscal Rules Dataset (2017). https://www.imf.org/external/ datamapper/fiscalrules/map/map.htm (10 Ocak 2020 tarihinde erişildi).
  • IMF International Financial Statistic (2021). https://data.imf.org/ ?sk=4c514d48-b6ba-49ed-8ab9-52b0c1a0179b (12 Ocak 2021 tarihinde erişildi).
  • Karras, G. (1994). Macroeconomic effects of budget deficits: further international evidence, Journal of International Money and Finance, 13(2), 190-210.
  • Lledó, V., Yoon, S., Fang, X., Mbaye, S. ve Kim, Y. (2017). Fiscal Rules at a Glance, https://www.imf.org/external/ datamapper/ fiscalrules/ Fiscal%20Rules%20at%20a%20Glance%20-%20Background%20 Paper.pdf (10 Ocak 2020 tarihinde erişildi).
  • Mohammadi, H. (2004). Budget Deficit and the Current Account Balance: New Evidence From Panle Data, Journal of Economics and Finance, 28(1), 39-45.
  • Molocwa, G. A., Khamfula, Y. ve Cheteni, P.(2018). Budget Deficits, Investment and Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration Approach, Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 15(3), 182-189.
  • Navaratnam, R. ve Mayandy, K. (2016). Causal Nexus Between Fiscal Deficit and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from South Asia, International Journal for Innovation Education and Research, 4(8), 1-19.
  • Nelson, M. A. ve Singh, R. D. (1994). The Deficit-Growth Connection: Some Recent Evidence from Developing Countries, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 43(1), 167-191.
  • Nguyen, V. B. (2015). Effects of Fiscal Deficit and Money M2 Supply on Inflation: Evidence From Selected Economies of Asia, Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 20(38), 49-53.
  • Özçalık, M. ve Erataş, F. (2014). İkiz Açıklar Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri İçin Bir Örnek, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 22, 136-151.
  • Piersanti, G. (2000). Current Account Dynamics and Expected Future Budget Deficits: Some International Evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 19(2), 255-271.
  • Sargent, T. J. & Wallace, N. (1981). Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic, Federal Reserv Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, 5(3), 1-17.
  • Vamvoukas, G. ve Spilioti, S. N. (2015). The Effects of Budget Deficits on Current Accounts in the EMU, Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 12(4), 115-122.
  • Volcker, P. A. (1984). Facing up to the Twin Deficits, Challenge, 27(1), 4–9.
  • World Development Indicators (2021). https://databank.worldbank.org/ source/ world-development-indicators (12 Ocak 2021 tarihinde erişildi).
  • World Economic Outlook Database (2020). https://www.imf.org/en/ Publications/SPROLLs/world-economic-outlook-databases#sort =%40imfdate%20descending (12 Ocak 2021 tarihinde erişildi).
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Zaman Serileri Analizi (Stata Uygulamalı), İstanbul: Beta
  • Pesaran, M.H. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels, J. Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
Toplam 27 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Yasin Karadeniz 0000-0003-3087-3729

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Temmuz 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Karadeniz, Y. (2021). The Effect of the Budget Deficit on Current Deficit, Economic Growth and Inflation in Some Developing Countries Implementing Fiscal Rule. Maliye Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(1), 52-58.
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