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SECTORAL PERSISTENCE OF TURKISH INFLATION RATES

Year 2018, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 29 - 33, 30.12.2018
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.975

Abstract

Purpose- Persistence of inflation refers to the speed of convergence of inflation to the long term mean after a shock. As the speed of convergence to the long run value is not high, monetary policy makers have to respond aggressively to decrease the effects of that shock. Therefore, the degree of inflation persistence should be determined correctly to take the right policy application.

Methodology- Persistence of inflation in CPI and PPI series is investigated by using the sum of the autoregressive coefficients of a univariate model with breaks in the mean of inflation in this study.

Findings- When we investigated persistence of CPI and PPI series and subgroups with breaks in inflation, we find inflation persistence is much lower in all groups.

Conclusion- However, the persistence of inflation has decreased after adopting the inflation targeting policy, this decrease in persistence has not reduced the persistence in the whole period to low levels.

References

  • Altınok, S., Şahin, A. ve Çetinkaya, M. (2009). Frekans-Alanda Enflasyon Direnci Araştırması: Türkiye Örneği. Kamu-İs, X, 4.
  • Altissimo, F., Bilke L., Levin, A, Mathä, T, Mojon, B. (2006). Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area. Journal of the European Economic Association 4(2–3): 585–593.
  • Bai, J. ve Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 18(1): 1-22.
  • Balcılar, M. (2004). Persistence in Inflation: Does Aggregation Cause Long Memory? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 40(5): 25-56.
  • Benati, .2008). Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 123(3): 1005-1060.
  • Bilke, L. (2005). Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: A Sectoral Analysis of French CPI. European Central Bank Working Paper No. 463.
  • Capistran, C. ve Ramos-Francia, M. (2007). “Inflation Dynamics in Latin America”. Meksika Merkez Bankası Çalışma Tebligi, No: 2006-11.
  • Cecchetti, S. G. ve Debelle, G. (2006). “Has the Inflation Process Changed?”. Economic Policy 21 (46): 311-352.
  • Clark, Todd E. (2006). Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation. Journal of Applied. Econometrics 21(5): 563–587.
  • Dias, D. ve Marques, C. R. (2005). Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence. European Central Bank Working Paper No. 450.
  • D’Amato, L., Garegnani, L. ve Sots-Paladina, J. M. (2007). “Inflation Persistence ve Changes in the Monetary Regime: The Argentine Case”. Arjantin Merkez Bankası Çalısma Tebliği, No: 23.
  • Gadzinski, G. ve Orlandi, F. (2004). Inflation Persistence in the European Union, the Euro Area, and the United States. European Central Bank Working Paper No. 414.
  • Levin, A. T. ve Piger, J. M. (2004). Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Countries? European Central Bank Working Paper No. 334.
  • Mishkin, F. S., (2007). Inflation Dynamics, International Finance, 10, 317-334.
  • Kutlar, A. ve Turgut, T. (2006). Turkiye’de Başlıca Ekonomik Serilerin ARFIMA Modelleri ile Tahmini ve Ongorulebilirliği. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 11(1): 120- 149.
  • Levin, A., Natalucci, F. ve Piger, J. (2004). The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targetting. Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis Review, LXXXVI, 4, 51-80.
  • Lünneman, P. ve Matha, T. Y. (2004). “How Persistent is Disaggregate Inflation? An Analysis Across EU15 Countries ve HICP Sub-indices”. Avrupa Merkez Bankası Çalısma Tebligi, No: 4.
  • O’Reilly, G., ve Whelan, K.(2005). Has EuroArea Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time? Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4): 709–720.
  • Özçiçek, Ö. (2011), Türkiye’de Sektörel Enflasyon Direnci, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 11, Sayı: 1, 57-68.
  • Petrassi, M. ve de Oliveira, Fernando N. (2009). Is Inflation Persistence Over? Brezilya Merkez Bankası.
  • Pivetta, F. ve Reis, R. (2007). The Persistence of Inflation in the United States,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(4): 1326–1358.
  • Şahin, A. ve Çetinkaya, M.(2009). Zaman Ortamında Sektorel Enflasyon Direnci Hesaplaması: Turkiye Orneği. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, sayı 537: 23-38.
  • Taylor, J. (1999). Staggered Price and Wage Setting in Macroeconomics. Handbook of Macroeconomics, vol 1b, Editorler Taylor ve Woodford, North-Holland: 1009-1050.
  • Yılmazkuday, H. (2009). Inflation Targeting and Inflation Convergence within Turkey. Münih Kisisel Repec Arsiv Çalısması, No: 16770.

TÜRKİYE’DE ENFLASYON ORANLARININ SEKTÖREL DİRENCİ

Year 2018, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 29 - 33, 30.12.2018
https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.975

Abstract

Amaç- Enflasyon direnci, enflasyon serisine gelen bir şokun sonucunda serinin uzun dönemli ortalamasına yakınsama hızını ifade eder. Bu yakınsama hızı yüksek değilse, şokun etkisini azaltmak için para politikası uygulayıcıları daha sert tedbirler uygulamak durumundadır. Dolayısıyla, enflasyon direncinin doğru tespit edilmesi doğru politikaların uygulanabilmesi için gereklidir. Bu amaçla, Türkiye enflasyon oranlarının direnç değerleri tespit edilmiştir.

Yöntem- Literatürde enflasyon direncini hesaplamak için farklı yöntemler kullanılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, TÜFE ve ÜFE serilerindeki direnç seviyesini belirleyebilmek için yapısal kırılmanın dahil edildiği tek değişkenli ardaşık bağlanım modelindeki katsayıların toplanması yöntemi kullanılmıştır.

Bulgular- TÜFE ve ÜFE serileri ve bu serilerin alt gruplarında direnç değerini hesaplamak için yapısal kırılmalı yöntem kullanıldığında, yapısal kırılmanın dahil edilmeden yapılan tahminlere göre enflasyon serilerindeki direnç değeri düşmektedir. Ayrıca enflasyon hedeflemesi politikası benimsendikten sonra enflasyon serilerindeki direnç değerleri düşmektedir.

Sonuç- Genel olarak bulunan sonuç enflasyon serilerinde direncin kırılma tarihinden son

References

  • Altınok, S., Şahin, A. ve Çetinkaya, M. (2009). Frekans-Alanda Enflasyon Direnci Araştırması: Türkiye Örneği. Kamu-İs, X, 4.
  • Altissimo, F., Bilke L., Levin, A, Mathä, T, Mojon, B. (2006). Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area. Journal of the European Economic Association 4(2–3): 585–593.
  • Bai, J. ve Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 18(1): 1-22.
  • Balcılar, M. (2004). Persistence in Inflation: Does Aggregation Cause Long Memory? Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 40(5): 25-56.
  • Benati, .2008). Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes. The Quarterly Journal of Economics 123(3): 1005-1060.
  • Bilke, L. (2005). Break in the Mean and Persistence of Inflation: A Sectoral Analysis of French CPI. European Central Bank Working Paper No. 463.
  • Capistran, C. ve Ramos-Francia, M. (2007). “Inflation Dynamics in Latin America”. Meksika Merkez Bankası Çalışma Tebligi, No: 2006-11.
  • Cecchetti, S. G. ve Debelle, G. (2006). “Has the Inflation Process Changed?”. Economic Policy 21 (46): 311-352.
  • Clark, Todd E. (2006). Disaggregate evidence on the persistence of consumer price inflation. Journal of Applied. Econometrics 21(5): 563–587.
  • Dias, D. ve Marques, C. R. (2005). Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence. European Central Bank Working Paper No. 450.
  • D’Amato, L., Garegnani, L. ve Sots-Paladina, J. M. (2007). “Inflation Persistence ve Changes in the Monetary Regime: The Argentine Case”. Arjantin Merkez Bankası Çalısma Tebliği, No: 23.
  • Gadzinski, G. ve Orlandi, F. (2004). Inflation Persistence in the European Union, the Euro Area, and the United States. European Central Bank Working Paper No. 414.
  • Levin, A. T. ve Piger, J. M. (2004). Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Countries? European Central Bank Working Paper No. 334.
  • Mishkin, F. S., (2007). Inflation Dynamics, International Finance, 10, 317-334.
  • Kutlar, A. ve Turgut, T. (2006). Turkiye’de Başlıca Ekonomik Serilerin ARFIMA Modelleri ile Tahmini ve Ongorulebilirliği. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 11(1): 120- 149.
  • Levin, A., Natalucci, F. ve Piger, J. (2004). The Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targetting. Federal Reserve Bank St. Louis Review, LXXXVI, 4, 51-80.
  • Lünneman, P. ve Matha, T. Y. (2004). “How Persistent is Disaggregate Inflation? An Analysis Across EU15 Countries ve HICP Sub-indices”. Avrupa Merkez Bankası Çalısma Tebligi, No: 4.
  • O’Reilly, G., ve Whelan, K.(2005). Has EuroArea Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time? Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4): 709–720.
  • Özçiçek, Ö. (2011), Türkiye’de Sektörel Enflasyon Direnci, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, Cilt: 11, Sayı: 1, 57-68.
  • Petrassi, M. ve de Oliveira, Fernando N. (2009). Is Inflation Persistence Over? Brezilya Merkez Bankası.
  • Pivetta, F. ve Reis, R. (2007). The Persistence of Inflation in the United States,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 31(4): 1326–1358.
  • Şahin, A. ve Çetinkaya, M.(2009). Zaman Ortamında Sektorel Enflasyon Direnci Hesaplaması: Turkiye Orneği. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, sayı 537: 23-38.
  • Taylor, J. (1999). Staggered Price and Wage Setting in Macroeconomics. Handbook of Macroeconomics, vol 1b, Editorler Taylor ve Woodford, North-Holland: 1009-1050.
  • Yılmazkuday, H. (2009). Inflation Targeting and Inflation Convergence within Turkey. Münih Kisisel Repec Arsiv Çalısması, No: 16770.
There are 24 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Bekir Asik 0000-0002-2221-016X

Publication Date December 30, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2018 Volume: 8 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Asik, B. (2018). SECTORAL PERSISTENCE OF TURKISH INFLATION RATES. PressAcademia Procedia, 8(1), 29-33. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.975
AMA Asik B. SECTORAL PERSISTENCE OF TURKISH INFLATION RATES. PAP. December 2018;8(1):29-33. doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.975
Chicago Asik, Bekir. “SECTORAL PERSISTENCE OF TURKISH INFLATION RATES”. PressAcademia Procedia 8, no. 1 (December 2018): 29-33. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.975.
EndNote Asik B (December 1, 2018) SECTORAL PERSISTENCE OF TURKISH INFLATION RATES. PressAcademia Procedia 8 1 29–33.
IEEE B. Asik, “SECTORAL PERSISTENCE OF TURKISH INFLATION RATES”, PAP, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 29–33, 2018, doi: 10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.975.
ISNAD Asik, Bekir. “SECTORAL PERSISTENCE OF TURKISH INFLATION RATES”. PressAcademia Procedia 8/1 (December 2018), 29-33. https://doi.org/10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.975.
JAMA Asik B. SECTORAL PERSISTENCE OF TURKISH INFLATION RATES. PAP. 2018;8:29–33.
MLA Asik, Bekir. “SECTORAL PERSISTENCE OF TURKISH INFLATION RATES”. PressAcademia Procedia, vol. 8, no. 1, 2018, pp. 29-33, doi:10.17261/Pressacademia.2018.975.
Vancouver Asik B. SECTORAL PERSISTENCE OF TURKISH INFLATION RATES. PAP. 2018;8(1):29-33.

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