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Yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak Türkiye'de Covid-19 Pandemisini kapsayan dönemde güven endeksleri üzerine yapılan bir çalışma

Year 2021, Volume: 14 Issue: 3, 948 - 960, 31.07.2021
https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.795657

Abstract

Güven indikatörlerinin, en önemli özelliği, tüketim, üretim ve yatırım kararlarının majör belirleyicilerine ilişkin bilgi sağlamasıdır. Bu indikatörler, tüketim, üretim ve yatırım faaliyetlerinin gelecek dönemdeki trendlerine ilişkin sinyaller verdiği için, hanehalkları, işletmeler ve merkez bankaları gibi çeşitli ekonomik birimler, güven indikatörlerini, tahmin ve karar alma mekanizmalarına dahil etmektedir. Bu çerçevede, hanehalkları ve firmaların ekonomik görünüme ilişkin beklentilerini ölçmek amacıyla kullanılan güven endeksleri, makroekonomik indikatörlerdeki değişimleri büyük ölçüde yansıtmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2012:05-2020:09 döneminde, Türkiye için, güven indikatörlerinin trendinin analiz edilmesidir. Analizde, Carrion-i Silvestre ve diğ. (2009) tarafından geliştirilen birimkök testi kullanılarak, tüketici, finansal hizmetler ve reel sektör güven endekslerinin durağanlığı, yapısal kırılmalar dikkate alınarak test edilmektedir. Analiz sonuçları, ilgili dönemde, reel sektör ve finansal hizmetler güven endekslerinin istikrarlı bir trende sahip olduğuna; diğer yandan tüketici güven endeksinin dalgalı bir görünüme sahip olduğuna işaret etmektedir. Analiz aynı zamanda, yapısal kırılma tarihlerini göstermektedir.

References

  • Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. J. (2009). Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism, Princeton University Press.
  • Barsky, R. B. & Sims, E. R. (2012). Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence, The American Economic Review, 102(4), 1343-1377.
  • Bram, J. & Ludvigson, S. C. (1998). Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Expenditure? A Sentiment Index Horse Race, Economic Policy Review, 4(2), 59-78.
  • Cass, D. & Shell, K. (1983). Do Sunspots Matter?, Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 193-227.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (2020). Electronic Data Delivery System (EVDS), Available at: https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket Access date: 20.02.2020.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (2019). Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index. Available at: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/9d2d0544-b3bd-4641-aed9-cf82621a905b/FSS-Report-Int.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-9d2d0544-b3bd-4641-aed9-cf82621a905b-mCBazHv. Access Date: 13.05.2019.
  • Desroches, B. & Gosselin, M. A. (2002). The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States, Bank of Canada, Working Paper 2002-22.
  • European Central Bank (2013), Monthly Bulletin, January 2013), Available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/art1_mb201301en_pp45-58en.pdf Access date: 21.09.2019.
  • Eyuboglu, K. & Eyuboglu, S. (2017). Ekonomik Güven Endeksi İle Hisse Senedi Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği, Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19/2 (2017) 603-614.
  • Fair, R. C. (1971). Consumer Sentiment, the Stock Market and Consumption Functions, Princeton University Econometric Research Program Research Memorandum, No: 119.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F, & van Oest, R.D. (2006). Testing Changes in Consumer Confidence Indicator,  No: EI 2006-18, Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/7675.
  • Fuhrer, J. C. (1993). What Role Does Consumer Sentiment Play in the U.S. Economy?, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, New England Economic Review, 32-44.
  • Im, K. S., Lee, J. & Tieslau, M. A. (2014). More Powerful Unit Root Tests with Non-normal Errors, In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York, 315-342.
  • Huth, W. L., Eppright, D. R., & Taube, P. M. (1994). The Indexes of Consumer Sentiment and Confidence: Leading or Misleading Guides to Future Buyer Behavior, Journal of Business Research, 29(3), 199-206.
  • Katona, G. (1951). Psychological Analysis of Economic Behavior, New York: McGraw-Hill Press.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Interest, Employment and Money, Macmillan Cambridge University Press.
  • Korkmaz, T. & Çevik, E. İ. (2009). Reel Kesim Güven Endeksi ile İMKB 100 Endeksi Arasındaki Dinamik Nedensellik İlişkisi, İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 38(1), 24-37.
  • Lopez, H. B., & Durre, A. (2003). The Determinants of Consumer Confidence: the Case of United States and Belgium, CORE Discussion Papers, 2003053, Université Catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics.
  • Ludvigson S. C (2004). Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2):29-50.
  • Marianana, G. (2012). Confidence Indicators Analysis in the Context of Romanian and European Economy, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 62, 393-397.
  • Matsusaka, J. G. & Sbordone, A. M. (1995). Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations, Economic Inquiry, 33(2), 296-318.
  • McKecnie, S. & Gritten, A. (2011).New Insights into Consumer Confidence in Financial Services, International Journal of Bank Marketing, 29:2, 90-106. 
  • Mishkin, F. S. (1978). Consumer Sentiment and Spending on Durable Goods, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, No: 1, 217-32.
  • Ndou, E. , Gumata N. & Ncube, M. (2017). Business Confidence Shocks and the Relevance of Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty Channels, In: Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks. Palgrave Macmillan, 383-399.
  • Neisingh, P. & Stokman, Ad. C.J. (2013). What Drives Consumer Confidence in times of Financial Crises? Evidence for the Netherlands, De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper, No: 394.
  • Rogers, R. M. (2009). The Complete Idiot's Guide to Economic Indicators: Manage Your Investments with an Eye on the Key Factors Affecting Today’s Market, Alpha Books, eISBN: 978-1-101-14060-4.
  • OECD (2020), Business Confidence Index (BCI) (indicator). doi: 10.1787/3092dc4f-en Accessed date: 25.05.2019.
  • OECD (2019), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) (indicator). doi: 10.1787/46434d78-en (Accessed on 19 February 2020)
  • Ozsagir, A. (2007). Ekonomide Güven Faktörü. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6 (20), 46-62.
  • Taylor, K. & Macnabb, R. (2007). Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(2), 185-208.
  • Trading Economics (2019). Turkey-Economic Indicators, Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/indicators , Acces date: 12.02.2020.

A study on confidence indexes in Turkey under structural breaks for the period covering the Covid-19 Pandemic

Year 2021, Volume: 14 Issue: 3, 948 - 960, 31.07.2021
https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.795657

Abstract

The most important feature of confidence indicators is probably the information they provide about the major determinants of consumption, production, and investment decisions. As they indicate future patterns of consumption, production, and investments, many economic agents including households, businesses, and central banks integrate these indicators into their processes of forecasting and decision-making. In this context, confidence indexes, which are used basically to assess the expectations of households and businesses regarding the economic outlook, have the power to reflect the changes in macroeconomic fundamentals. The key objective of this paper is to analyze the trend of confidence indexes for Turkey from 2012:05 through 2020:09. In this study, we employ the Carrion-i Silvestre et al. (2009) unit root test which accounts for multiple structural breaks to test the stationary of the consumer, financial services, and real sector confidence indexes. We find that the financial and real sector confidence indexes have a stable trend, while the consumer confidence index does not have a consistent pattern in the relevant period. Our analysis also provides information regarding the dates of structural breaks.

References

  • Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. J. (2009). Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism, Princeton University Press.
  • Barsky, R. B. & Sims, E. R. (2012). Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence, The American Economic Review, 102(4), 1343-1377.
  • Bram, J. & Ludvigson, S. C. (1998). Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Expenditure? A Sentiment Index Horse Race, Economic Policy Review, 4(2), 59-78.
  • Cass, D. & Shell, K. (1983). Do Sunspots Matter?, Journal of Political Economy, 91(2), 193-227.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (2020). Electronic Data Delivery System (EVDS), Available at: https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket Access date: 20.02.2020.
  • Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (2019). Financial Services Statistics and Financial Services Confidence Index. Available at: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/9d2d0544-b3bd-4641-aed9-cf82621a905b/FSS-Report-Int.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-9d2d0544-b3bd-4641-aed9-cf82621a905b-mCBazHv. Access Date: 13.05.2019.
  • Desroches, B. & Gosselin, M. A. (2002). The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States, Bank of Canada, Working Paper 2002-22.
  • European Central Bank (2013), Monthly Bulletin, January 2013), Available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/other/art1_mb201301en_pp45-58en.pdf Access date: 21.09.2019.
  • Eyuboglu, K. & Eyuboglu, S. (2017). Ekonomik Güven Endeksi İle Hisse Senedi Fiyatları Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Türkiye Örneği, Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 19/2 (2017) 603-614.
  • Fair, R. C. (1971). Consumer Sentiment, the Stock Market and Consumption Functions, Princeton University Econometric Research Program Research Memorandum, No: 119.
  • Franses, Ph.H.B.F, & van Oest, R.D. (2006). Testing Changes in Consumer Confidence Indicator,  No: EI 2006-18, Report / Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/1765/7675.
  • Fuhrer, J. C. (1993). What Role Does Consumer Sentiment Play in the U.S. Economy?, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, New England Economic Review, 32-44.
  • Im, K. S., Lee, J. & Tieslau, M. A. (2014). More Powerful Unit Root Tests with Non-normal Errors, In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York, 315-342.
  • Huth, W. L., Eppright, D. R., & Taube, P. M. (1994). The Indexes of Consumer Sentiment and Confidence: Leading or Misleading Guides to Future Buyer Behavior, Journal of Business Research, 29(3), 199-206.
  • Katona, G. (1951). Psychological Analysis of Economic Behavior, New York: McGraw-Hill Press.
  • Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Interest, Employment and Money, Macmillan Cambridge University Press.
  • Korkmaz, T. & Çevik, E. İ. (2009). Reel Kesim Güven Endeksi ile İMKB 100 Endeksi Arasındaki Dinamik Nedensellik İlişkisi, İstanbul Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 38(1), 24-37.
  • Lopez, H. B., & Durre, A. (2003). The Determinants of Consumer Confidence: the Case of United States and Belgium, CORE Discussion Papers, 2003053, Université Catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics.
  • Ludvigson S. C (2004). Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2):29-50.
  • Marianana, G. (2012). Confidence Indicators Analysis in the Context of Romanian and European Economy, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 62, 393-397.
  • Matsusaka, J. G. & Sbordone, A. M. (1995). Consumer Confidence and Economic Fluctuations, Economic Inquiry, 33(2), 296-318.
  • McKecnie, S. & Gritten, A. (2011).New Insights into Consumer Confidence in Financial Services, International Journal of Bank Marketing, 29:2, 90-106. 
  • Mishkin, F. S. (1978). Consumer Sentiment and Spending on Durable Goods, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, No: 1, 217-32.
  • Ndou, E. , Gumata N. & Ncube, M. (2017). Business Confidence Shocks and the Relevance of Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Policy Uncertainty Channels, In: Global Economic Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Shocks. Palgrave Macmillan, 383-399.
  • Neisingh, P. & Stokman, Ad. C.J. (2013). What Drives Consumer Confidence in times of Financial Crises? Evidence for the Netherlands, De Nederlandsche Bank Working Paper, No: 394.
  • Rogers, R. M. (2009). The Complete Idiot's Guide to Economic Indicators: Manage Your Investments with an Eye on the Key Factors Affecting Today’s Market, Alpha Books, eISBN: 978-1-101-14060-4.
  • OECD (2020), Business Confidence Index (BCI) (indicator). doi: 10.1787/3092dc4f-en Accessed date: 25.05.2019.
  • OECD (2019), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) (indicator). doi: 10.1787/46434d78-en (Accessed on 19 February 2020)
  • Ozsagir, A. (2007). Ekonomide Güven Faktörü. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6 (20), 46-62.
  • Taylor, K. & Macnabb, R. (2007). Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(2), 185-208.
  • Trading Economics (2019). Turkey-Economic Indicators, Available at: https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/indicators , Acces date: 12.02.2020.
There are 31 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Esra N. Kılcı 0000-0002-2239-4560

Publication Date July 31, 2021
Submission Date September 16, 2020
Acceptance Date June 17, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 14 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Kılcı, E. N. (2021). A study on confidence indexes in Turkey under structural breaks for the period covering the Covid-19 Pandemic. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(3), 948-960. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.795657

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