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Gri Sistem Teorisi ve Enerji Tüketim Modellemesinde Bir Uygulama

Year 2023, Volume: 35 Issue: 2, 164 - 176, 03.07.2023

Esra Mavigöz Sevcan Demir Atalay

https://doi.org/10.7240/jeps.1165607

Abstract

Bu çalışmada GVMCT ile ifade edilen ve gri Verhulst modeline sabit terimin eklenmesi ile oluşturulan model üzerine çalışılmıştır. Bu modele ilişkin diferansiyel denklem çözülerek gri tahmin denklemi elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen tahmin denkleminin performansının değerlendirilmesi amacıyla enerji alanında bir uygulama çalışması yapılmıştır. Konut Sektörünün Tükettiği Toplam Enerji (TERS) ve Ticari Sektörün Tükettiği Toplam Enerji (TECS) değişkenlerine ilişkin veri setleri incelenmiştir. Veri setinin uygun olması nedeniyle ilgili değişkenler için hem zaman serileri analizi kullanılarak hem de gri modelleme (GM (1,1) modeli, Gri Verhulst Modeli ve GVMCT modeli) kullanılarak çeşitli tahmin denklemleri oluşturulmuştur. Elde edilen tahmin denklemlerinin performansı MSE, MAE ve RMSE performans ölçülerine göre kıyaslanmıştır. ├ ( x) ̂^((1) ) (k)┤|_(k=1)=x^((1) ) (1) başlangıç koşulu altında, TERS değişkeni için RMSE, MAE, MSE değerleri sırasıyla 711201.26, 721.37, 843.33, TECS değişkeni için RMSE, MAE, MSE değerleri sırasıyla 266685.55, 437.69, 516.42 elde edilmiştir. İki değişken içinde diğer modellerin performans kriterleri değerlerine göre daha küçük olması dolayısıyla önerilen GVMCT modelinin performansının daha iyi olduğu görülmektedir. Elde edilen tahmin denklemleri kullanılarak iki dönem için öngörü yapılmış ve gerçek değerler ile kıyaslanmıştır.

Keywords

GVMCT GM(1, 1) Gri Verhulst Modeli Tahmin Performans Ölçüleri

Supporting Institution

Ege Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinatörlüğü

Project Number

FYL-2020-21749

Thanks

Bu çalışma FYL-2020-21749 numaralı Ege Üniversitesi BAP Lisansüstü Tez projesi kapsamında desteklenmiştir.

References

  • [1] Zadeh, L. A. (1965). Fuzzy Sets., Information and Control, 8(3), 338 – 35, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-9958(65)90241-X
  • [2] Deng J.L. (1982). Control-Problems of Grey Systems. Systems & Control Letters, 1, 288-294, 10.1016/S0167-6911(82)80025-X
  • [3] Huang, T.L, Wen, K.L. ve Deng J.L. (1997). The Documents of Grey System Theory. 2nd National Conference of Grey Theory and Applications, 1-32. [4] Deng J.L. (1989). Introduction To Grey System Theory. J Grey Syst, 1 (1), 1-24.
  • [5] Tan L.Z., Ouyang A.J., Peng X.Y., et al. (2015). A Fast And Stable Forecasting Model To Forecast Powerload. Int J Pattern Recogn Artifıntell, 29 (03), 1559-1564.
  • [6] Lin Z, Zhang Q. ve Liu H. (2012). Parameters Optimization of GM (1, 1) Model based on Artificial fish swarm algorithm. Grey Syst Theor Appl., 2(2), 166-177.
  • [7] Wang ZX, Li Q. ve Pei LL. (2017). Grey Forecasting Method Of Quarterly Hydropower Production ın China Based On A Data Grouping Approach. Appl Math Model., 51, 302-316.
  • [8] Lin YH, Chiu C.C, Lee P.C, et al. (2012). Applying Fuzzy Grey Modification Model On Inflow Forecasting. Engappl Artif intell, 25(4), 734-743.
  • [9] Chang, C-J., Lin, J-Y. ve Jin, P. (2017). A Grey Modeling Procedure Based On The Data Smoothing Index For Short-Term Manufacturing Demand Forecast. Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, 23, 409-422.
  • [10] Xie N. M. ve Liu S.F. (2009). Discrete Grey Forecasting Model and Its Optimization. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 33(2), 1173-1186.
  • [11] Ma. ve Liu Z.B. (2017). Application Of A Novel Time-Delayed Polynomial Grey Model To Predict The Natural Gas Consumption in China. J Comput appl. Math, 324, 17-24.
  • [12] Yang, Y. ve Xue, D. (2016). Continuous Fractional-Order Grey Model and Electricity Prediction Research Based on the Observation Error Feedback. Energy, 115, 722-733.
  • [13] Deng J.L. (2002). Basis On Grey System Theory. Wuhan. Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press.
  • [14] Dang, Y.G. ve Liu, S.F. (2004). The GM Models That X(N) Be Taken As Initial Value. Kybernetes, 33(2), 247-254.
  • [15] Xie N. M. ve Liu S.F. (2009). Discrete Grey Forecasting Model and Its Optimization. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 33(2), 1173-1186.
  • [16] Liu, S. ve Yi Lin. (2010). Grey Systems Theory and Applications, Springer -Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, s. 391.
  • [17] Mostafaei, H. ve Kordnoori, S. (2012). Hybrid Grey Forecasting Model for Iran’s Energy Consumption and Supply. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2(3), 97-102.
  • [18] Shen, X. ve Lu, Z. (2014). The Application of Grey Theory Model in the Predication of Jiangsu Province's Electric Power Demand, AASRI Procedia, 7, 81-87.
  • [19] Akay, D. ve Atak, M. (2007). Grey Prediction With Rolling Mechanism For Electricity Demand Forecasting of Turkey. Energy, 32, 1670–1675.
  • [20] Lin Z, Zhang Q. ve Liu H. (2012). Parameters Optimization of GM (1, 1) Model based on Artificial fish swarm algorithm. Grey Syst Theor Appl; 2(2), 166-177.
  • [21] Wang, H. T., ve Mu, S. R. (2010). Study on the energy consumption structure and carbon emissions trend in Beijing. Urban Studies, 17(9), 55–60.
  • [22] Es, H.A. (2020). Gri Tahmin Modelleri ile Toplam Enerji Talep Tahmini: Türkiye Örneği. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi. GÜFBED/GUSTIJ 10 (3), 771-782.
  • [23] Zeng, B., Li, C., Chen G. ve Zhang, W. (2013). Verhulst Model of Interval Grey Number Based on Information Decomposing and Model Combination. Journal of Applied Mathematics, Article ID 472065, 8 pages, http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/472065
  • [24] Kayacan, E., Ulutas, B. ve Kaynak, O. (2010). Grey System Theory-Based Models in Time Series Prediction, Expert Systems with Applications, 37, 1784 –1789.
  • [25] Zhang, P., Ma, X. ve She, K. (2019). Forecasting Japan’s Solar Energy Consumption Using a Novel Incomplete Gamma Grey Model. Sustainability, 11, 5921.
  • [26] Atalay, S.D., Çaliş, G. ve Adıyaman M., 2022 An improved grey Verhulst model to forecast energy demand in the USA and Turkey. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers–Engineering Sustainability, 175(3), 154-164, https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00085 Abstract, Google Scholar
  • [27] Liu, S. ve Lin, Y. (2006). Grey Information, Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, s.512.

Year 2023, Volume: 35 Issue: 2, 164 - 176, 03.07.2023

Esra Mavigöz Sevcan Demir Atalay

https://doi.org/10.7240/jeps.1165607

Abstract

Project Number

FYL-2020-21749

References

  • [1] Zadeh, L. A. (1965). Fuzzy Sets., Information and Control, 8(3), 338 – 35, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-9958(65)90241-X
  • [2] Deng J.L. (1982). Control-Problems of Grey Systems. Systems & Control Letters, 1, 288-294, 10.1016/S0167-6911(82)80025-X
  • [3] Huang, T.L, Wen, K.L. ve Deng J.L. (1997). The Documents of Grey System Theory. 2nd National Conference of Grey Theory and Applications, 1-32. [4] Deng J.L. (1989). Introduction To Grey System Theory. J Grey Syst, 1 (1), 1-24.
  • [5] Tan L.Z., Ouyang A.J., Peng X.Y., et al. (2015). A Fast And Stable Forecasting Model To Forecast Powerload. Int J Pattern Recogn Artifıntell, 29 (03), 1559-1564.
  • [6] Lin Z, Zhang Q. ve Liu H. (2012). Parameters Optimization of GM (1, 1) Model based on Artificial fish swarm algorithm. Grey Syst Theor Appl., 2(2), 166-177.
  • [7] Wang ZX, Li Q. ve Pei LL. (2017). Grey Forecasting Method Of Quarterly Hydropower Production ın China Based On A Data Grouping Approach. Appl Math Model., 51, 302-316.
  • [8] Lin YH, Chiu C.C, Lee P.C, et al. (2012). Applying Fuzzy Grey Modification Model On Inflow Forecasting. Engappl Artif intell, 25(4), 734-743.
  • [9] Chang, C-J., Lin, J-Y. ve Jin, P. (2017). A Grey Modeling Procedure Based On The Data Smoothing Index For Short-Term Manufacturing Demand Forecast. Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, 23, 409-422.
  • [10] Xie N. M. ve Liu S.F. (2009). Discrete Grey Forecasting Model and Its Optimization. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 33(2), 1173-1186.
  • [11] Ma. ve Liu Z.B. (2017). Application Of A Novel Time-Delayed Polynomial Grey Model To Predict The Natural Gas Consumption in China. J Comput appl. Math, 324, 17-24.
  • [12] Yang, Y. ve Xue, D. (2016). Continuous Fractional-Order Grey Model and Electricity Prediction Research Based on the Observation Error Feedback. Energy, 115, 722-733.
  • [13] Deng J.L. (2002). Basis On Grey System Theory. Wuhan. Huazhong University of Science and Technology Press.
  • [14] Dang, Y.G. ve Liu, S.F. (2004). The GM Models That X(N) Be Taken As Initial Value. Kybernetes, 33(2), 247-254.
  • [15] Xie N. M. ve Liu S.F. (2009). Discrete Grey Forecasting Model and Its Optimization. Applied Mathematical Modelling, 33(2), 1173-1186.
  • [16] Liu, S. ve Yi Lin. (2010). Grey Systems Theory and Applications, Springer -Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, s. 391.
  • [17] Mostafaei, H. ve Kordnoori, S. (2012). Hybrid Grey Forecasting Model for Iran’s Energy Consumption and Supply. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2(3), 97-102.
  • [18] Shen, X. ve Lu, Z. (2014). The Application of Grey Theory Model in the Predication of Jiangsu Province's Electric Power Demand, AASRI Procedia, 7, 81-87.
  • [19] Akay, D. ve Atak, M. (2007). Grey Prediction With Rolling Mechanism For Electricity Demand Forecasting of Turkey. Energy, 32, 1670–1675.
  • [20] Lin Z, Zhang Q. ve Liu H. (2012). Parameters Optimization of GM (1, 1) Model based on Artificial fish swarm algorithm. Grey Syst Theor Appl; 2(2), 166-177.
  • [21] Wang, H. T., ve Mu, S. R. (2010). Study on the energy consumption structure and carbon emissions trend in Beijing. Urban Studies, 17(9), 55–60.
  • [22] Es, H.A. (2020). Gri Tahmin Modelleri ile Toplam Enerji Talep Tahmini: Türkiye Örneği. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi. GÜFBED/GUSTIJ 10 (3), 771-782.
  • [23] Zeng, B., Li, C., Chen G. ve Zhang, W. (2013). Verhulst Model of Interval Grey Number Based on Information Decomposing and Model Combination. Journal of Applied Mathematics, Article ID 472065, 8 pages, http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/472065
  • [24] Kayacan, E., Ulutas, B. ve Kaynak, O. (2010). Grey System Theory-Based Models in Time Series Prediction, Expert Systems with Applications, 37, 1784 –1789.
  • [25] Zhang, P., Ma, X. ve She, K. (2019). Forecasting Japan’s Solar Energy Consumption Using a Novel Incomplete Gamma Grey Model. Sustainability, 11, 5921.
  • [26] Atalay, S.D., Çaliş, G. ve Adıyaman M., 2022 An improved grey Verhulst model to forecast energy demand in the USA and Turkey. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers–Engineering Sustainability, 175(3), 154-164, https://doi.org/10.1680/jensu.21.00085 Abstract, Google Scholar
  • [27] Liu, S. ve Lin, Y. (2006). Grey Information, Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, s.512.
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Engineering
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Esra Mavigöz This is me 0000-0001-8459-5889

Sevcan Demir Atalay 0000-0002-3117-0825

Project Number FYL-2020-21749
Publication Date July 3, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 35 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Mavigöz, E., & Demir Atalay, S. (2023). Gri Sistem Teorisi ve Enerji Tüketim Modellemesinde Bir Uygulama. International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences, 35(2), 164-176. https://doi.org/10.7240/jeps.1165607
AMA Mavigöz E, Demir Atalay S. Gri Sistem Teorisi ve Enerji Tüketim Modellemesinde Bir Uygulama. JEPS. July 2023;35(2):164-176. doi:10.7240/jeps.1165607
Chicago Mavigöz, Esra, and Sevcan Demir Atalay. “Gri Sistem Teorisi Ve Enerji Tüketim Modellemesinde Bir Uygulama”. International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences 35, no. 2 (July 2023): 164-76. https://doi.org/10.7240/jeps.1165607.
EndNote Mavigöz E, Demir Atalay S (July 1, 2023) Gri Sistem Teorisi ve Enerji Tüketim Modellemesinde Bir Uygulama. International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences 35 2 164–176.
IEEE E. Mavigöz and S. Demir Atalay, “Gri Sistem Teorisi ve Enerji Tüketim Modellemesinde Bir Uygulama”, JEPS, vol. 35, no. 2, pp. 164–176, 2023, doi: 10.7240/jeps.1165607.
ISNAD Mavigöz, Esra - Demir Atalay, Sevcan. “Gri Sistem Teorisi Ve Enerji Tüketim Modellemesinde Bir Uygulama”. International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences 35/2 (July 2023), 164-176. https://doi.org/10.7240/jeps.1165607.
JAMA Mavigöz E, Demir Atalay S. Gri Sistem Teorisi ve Enerji Tüketim Modellemesinde Bir Uygulama. JEPS. 2023;35:164–176.
MLA Mavigöz, Esra and Sevcan Demir Atalay. “Gri Sistem Teorisi Ve Enerji Tüketim Modellemesinde Bir Uygulama”. International Journal of Advances in Engineering and Pure Sciences, vol. 35, no. 2, 2023, pp. 164-76, doi:10.7240/jeps.1165607.
Vancouver Mavigöz E, Demir Atalay S. Gri Sistem Teorisi ve Enerji Tüketim Modellemesinde Bir Uygulama. JEPS. 2023;35(2):164-76.
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