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Jeopolitik Riskler Savunma Harcamalarını Etkiliyor mu? Panel ARDL Yaklaşımı İle Bir Analiz

Year 2024, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 69 - 85, 30.04.2024
https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.1428209

Abstract

Doğası gereği jeopolitik riskler son derece öngörülemez ve yönetilmesi zor bir risk türüdür. Bu riskler, ticari entegrasyon ve küreselleşmeyle birlikte dünya genelinde her geçen gün daha da artmaktadır. Jeopolitik risklerin artması, ülkeleri güvenlik konusunda endişelendirmekte ve onları silahlanma yarışına itebilmektedir. Böylece küresel ölçekte savunma harcamalarında ciddi artışlar söz konusu olabilmektedir. Bu çalışma, jeopolitik risk ve savunma harcamaları ilişkisini aralarında Türkiye’nin de bulunduğu beş ülkeli bir örneklemde incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda panel ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılarak ilgili ülkelere ait 1993-2021 dönemi verileri ile analiz gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz bulguları, uzun dönemde jeopolitik riskin savunma harcamaları üzerinde anlamlı pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Buna göre jeopolitik riskin artması, analiz edilen ülkelerde savunma harcamalarını artırmaktadır. Ancak kısa dönemde jeopolitik risklerin savunma harcamaları üzerinde herhangi bir etkisi söz konusu değildir. Bu sonuçlar dâhilinde egemen ülkelerin gerek komşularla ilişkilerde gerekse bölgesel çıkarlar doğrultusunda sorunlarını barışçıl yollarla çözümlemeleri, jeopolitik riskleri ve dahi savunma harcamalarını azaltabilecektir.

Ethical Statement

Bu çalışmada etik ilke ve standartlara uyulduğu beyan edilmiştir.

Supporting Institution

Yazarlar bu çalışma için herhangi bir finansal destek almadıklarını beyan etmiştir.

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Do Geopolitical Risks Affect Defense Expenditures? An Analysis With Panel ARDL Approach

Year 2024, Volume: 17 Issue: 1, 69 - 85, 30.04.2024
https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.1428209

Abstract

By their nature, geopolitical risks are highly unpredictable and difficult to manage. These risks are increasing day by day around the world with commercial integration and globalization. Increasing geopolitical risks make countries worry about security and may push them into an arms race. This study examines the relationship between geopolitical risk and defense expenditures in a sample of five countries, including Türkiye. A panel ARDL method was used to analyze the 1993–2021 period data of the relevant countries for this purpose. Analysis findings show that geopolitical risk positively affects defense expenditures in the long term. Accordingly, the increase in geopolitical risk increases defense expenditures in the analyzed countries. However, there is no effect in the short term. As a result, sovereign states can reduce geopolitical risks and even defense expenditures if they resolve their problems peacefully, both in relations with their neighbors and in line with regional interests.

Ethical Statement

The authors declare that this article complies with ethical standards and rules.

Supporting Institution

No financial support was received from any person or institution for the study.

References

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  • Azam, A., Rafiq, M., Shafique, M., Ateeq, M., & Yuan, J. (2021). Investigating the impact of renewable electricity consumption on sustainable economic development: A panel ARDL approach. International Journal of Green Energy, 18(11), 1185–1192. https://doi.org/10.1080/15435075.2021.1897825
  • Bandyopadhyay, S., Sandler, T., & Younas, J. (2014). Foreign direct investment, aid, and terrorism. Oxford Economic Papers, 66(1), 25–50. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/gpt026
  • Barış, S. (2021). Jeopolitik risk ve ekonomik kalkınma. İçinde H. Erkekoğlu ve K. H. Arıç (Ed.), 2000’li yıllarda dünya ekonomisinde fönüşüm (ss. 219–246). Ekin Yayınevi.
  • Baur, D. G., & Smales, L. A. (2020). Hedging geopolitical risk with precious metals. Journal of Banking & Finance, 117, 105823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105823
  • Blomberg, S. B., Hess, G. D., & Orphanides, A. (2004). The macroeconomic consequences of terrorism. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(5), 1007–1032. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2004.04.001
  • Bouoiyour, J., Selmi, R., Hammoudeh, S., & Wohar, M. E. (2019). What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats? Energy Economics, 84, 104523. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104523
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  • Carter, B., & Fay, E. M. (2019). Responding to terror: An empirical analysis of U.S. military activity, public opinion, and transnational terrorism. Journal of Applied Security Research, 14(2), 140–168. https://doi.org/10.1080/19361610.2019.1581875
  • Clements, B. J., Gupta, S., & Khamidova, S. (2019). Is military spending converging across countries? An examination of trends and key determinants (IMF Working Paper, No. 19/196). International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/09/20/Is-Military-Spending-Converging-Across-Countries-An-Examination-of-Trends-and-Key-48556
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  • da Silva, P. P., Cerqueira, P. A., & Ogbe, W. (2018). Determinants of renewable energy growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from panel ARDL. Energy, 156, 45–54. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.05.068
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  • Efe, E. & Aydın, Ü. (2023). Makroekonomik değişkenlerin ve jeopolitik risk endeksinin savunma harcamalarına etkisi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 24(3), 692–707. https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1317847
  • Feridun, M. (2011). Impact of terrorism on tourism in Turkey: Empirical evidence from Turkey. Applied Economics, 43(24), 3349–3354. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036841003636268
  • Fielding, D. (2004). How does violent conflict affect investment location decisions? Evidence from Israel during the Intifada. Journal of Peace Research, 41(4), 465–484. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343304044477
  • Filer, R. K., & Stanišić, D. (2016). The effect of terrorist incidents on capital flows. Review of Development Economics, 20(2), 502–513. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12246
  • Flint, C. (2006). Introduction to geopolitics. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9780203503768
  • Fonfría, A., & Marín, R. (2012). Determinants of the demand for defence expenditure in the NATO countires. Journal of the Higher School of National Defense Studies, 12, 9–30.
  • Gaberli, Y. C., Gaberli, Ü. & Güler, M. E. (2022). Impact of political stability and absence of violence/terrorism on tourism: A panel co-integration analysis. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 20(4), 387–400. https://doi.org/10.11611/yead.1168124
  • Gaibulloev, K., & Sandler, T. (2008). Growth consequences of terrorism in Western Europe. Kyklos, 61(3), 411–424. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6435.2008.00409.x
  • Gkillas, K., Gupta, R., & Pierdzioch, C. (2020). Forecasting realized gold volatility: Is there a role of geopolitical risks? Finance Research Letters, 35, 101280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2019.08.028
  • Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53–74. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00092-7
  • International Monetary Fund. (2017, October). World economic outlook: Seeking sustainable growth: Short-term recovery, long-term challenges. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/09/19/world-economic-outlook-october-2017
  • International Monetary Fund. (2023, October). World economic outlook: Navigating global divergences. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2023/10/10/world-economic-outlook-october-2023
  • İlhan, S. (1999). Dünya yeniden kuruluyor jeopolitik ve jeokültür tartışmaları. Ötüken Yayınları.
  • İlhan, S. (2002). Jeopolitik kavramı ve unsurları. Avrasya Dosyası Jeopolitik Özel, 8(4), 318–322.
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There are 66 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Regional Development and Globalisation in International Economics, Public Economy
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Serap Barış 0000-0003-3905-4746

Abdullah Barış 0000-0001-5637-9126

Publication Date April 30, 2024
Submission Date January 30, 2024
Acceptance Date March 12, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 17 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Barış, S., & Barış, A. (2024). Jeopolitik Riskler Savunma Harcamalarını Etkiliyor mu? Panel ARDL Yaklaşımı İle Bir Analiz. International Journal of Social Inquiry, 17(1), 69-85. https://doi.org/10.37093/ijsi.1428209

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