Abstract
Trade finance is a critical component of trade volume, terms of trade, and trade patterns, particularly for developed economies. This paper assesses the effect of trade finance on trade flows for G-7 countries. G-7 countries are leading world trade globally, so the economic model includes the impact of economic and financial crises (supply and demand shocks) on trade by dummies. The annual data from the World Bank Global Financial Development Indicators from 2001 to 2020 is analyzed using panel data analysis. Canada is excluded due to data constraints. Due to missing data before 2001 and the possibility of balance panel data analysis, this period was excluded from the model. The findings suggest that all variables are homogeneous and exhibit cross-section dependency, with a cointegrated relationship between dependent and independent variables in the long term. Short and long-term coefficients were estimated using the Common Correlation Effects (CCE) model. Our results suggest that trade finance may partially explain the decrease in total trade volume during economic or financial crises, as a loss in trade finance can significantly impact overall trade.
References
- Ahn, J. (2011). A Theory of Domestic and International Trade Finance. IMF Working Paper.
- Antras, P. ve Foley, C. F. (2011). Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices. Working Paper 17091, National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Baldwin R. (1989), Exporting the Capital Markets: Comparative Advantages and Capital Markets Imperfections, in Audretsch D., Sleuwaegen L. and Yamawakı H. (eds.), The Convergence of International And Domestic Markets, North Holland, Amsterdam.
- Bardhan, P. ve Kletzer, K. (1987). Credit Markets and Patterns of International Trade. Journal of Development Economics. 27, 57-70
- Beck, T. (2002), Financial Development and International Trade: Is There a Link? Journal of International Economics. 57, 107-131.
- Behrens, K.; Corcor, G. ve Mion, G. (2013). Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis? https://www.jstor.org/stable/43554414 (01.08.2023).
- Brandi, C. ve Schmitz, B. (2015). Trade Flows in Developing Countries: What Is the Role of Trade Finance? IDOS Discussion Papers 13/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
- Chaney, T. (2005), Liquidity Constrained Exporters. NBER Working Paper, 19170.
- Chauffour, J. P. ve Malouche, M. (2011). Trade finance during the Great Trade Collapse. World Bank.
- Contessi, S. ve de Francesca, N. (2012). What Do We Know about the Relationship between Access to Finance and International Trade? Working Paper 2012-054B http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2012/2012-054.pdf, (26.07.2023).
- Couppey-Soubeyran, J. ve Héricourt, J. (2011). The Relationship between Trade Credit, Bank Credit and Financial Structure: From Firm-level Non-linearities to Financial Development Heterogeneity. A Study on MENA Firm-level Data. Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11008, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- Çetiner, M. ve Eke, S. (2018). The Role and Importance of Export Credit Insurance in Support of Export Development and Economic Growth. PressAcademia Procedia (PAP), (8): 66-70.
- Dornel, A.; Engel, J. ve Malouche, M. (2023). Greesing the Wheels of Commerce – Trade Credits. https://blogs.worldbank.org/trade/greasing-wheels-commerce-trade-finance-and-credit, (12.11.2023).
- Eaton, J., Kortum, S., Neiman, B., ve Romalis, J. (2016). Trade and The Global Recession. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24911311, (01.08.2023).
- Gerni, C. (1990). Dış Ticaretin Finansmanı. Ankara Yayınevi, Türkiye.
- Glady, N. ve Potin, J. (2011). Bank Intermediation and Default Risk in International Trade Theory and Evidence. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:167969013 , (12.03.2023).
- Karul, Ç. (2016). Esnek Fourier Fonksiyonlu Yeni Bir Panel Birim Kök Testi Önerisi ve OECD Örneği. Pamukkale Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitütüsü, Ekonometri Anabilim Dalı, Yayınlanmış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
- Katharina, E.; Engemann, M. ve Schnitzer, M. (2012). How Trade Credits Foster International Trade. ECONSTOR Working Paper, No. 379, https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13175/, (12.11.2023).
- Kaya, F. ve Turguttopbaş, N. (2012). Dış Ticaret İşlemleri. TC. Anadolu Üniversitesi Yayını, No: 2526.
- Kraemer, C. ve Kajimoto, T. (2023). Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/markets/g7-finance-heads-face-tricky-trade-off-debating-steps-counter-china-2023-05-12/ (05.01.2023).
- Manova, K. (2013). Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, And International Trade. Review of Economic Studies. 80, 711-744.
- Nuroğlu, E. (2014). Estimating and Forecasting Trade Flows by Panel Data Analysis and Neural Networks. İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası. 64(1), 85-112.
- Olsen, M. G. (2011). Banks in International Trade: Incomplete International Contract Enforcement and Reputation. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:37777830 (12.11.2023).
- Özdemir, Z. (1995). Dış Ticaret Finansman Tekniklerinden Faktoring ve Forfaiting İşlemleri. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 10(2): 194-224.
- Pesaran, H. M. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Working Paper No:0435. University of Cambridge. 1-39.
- Pesaran, H. M. (2006). Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with A Multifactor Error Structure. Econometrics, 74(4), 967-1012.
- Pesaran, H. M. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics. 142, 50-93.
- Kraemer, C. ve Kajimoto, T. (2023). Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/markets/g7-finance-heads-face-tricky-trade-off-debating-steps-counter-china-2023-05-12/ (05.01.2023).
- Ronci, M. (2004). Trade Finance and Trade Flows: Panel Data Evidence from 10 countries. IMF Working Paper, WP/04/225, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Trade-Finance-and-Trade-Flows-Panel-Data-Evidence-From-10-Crises-17693, (03.08.2023).
- Schmidt-Eisenlohr, T. (2010). Towards a Theory of Trade Finance. Oxford University Business Center for Taxation Working Paper 10/23.
- Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel Co-integration Tests of the Fisher Effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 23, 193-233.
- UNESCAP (2002). Trade Facilitation Handbook for the Greater Mekong Subregion. United Nations Publication, ST/ESCAP/2224, New York, https://www.unescap.org/, (09.11.2023)
Abstract
Gelişmiş ekonomiler için ticaretin finansmanı özellikle ticaret hacmi, ticaret hadleri ve ticaretin deseni üzerine önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı ticaretin finansmanının ticaret akımları üzerine olan etkisini G-7 ülkeleri için tahmin edeblmektir. G-7 ülkelerinin analize konu edilmesinin küresel bağlamda bu gelişmiş ülkelerin dünya ticaretine ve finansmanına yön veriyor olmalarıdır. Kurulan iktisadi modelde gerek arz gerek ise talep şoklarına yol açan ekonomik ve finansal krizler kukla değişken-dummy değişkeni ile dikkate alınarak 2001-2020 dönemi Dünya Bankası Küresel Finansal Gelişim Göstergelerinden elde edilen yıllık veriler ile analiz edilmiştir. G-7 ülkelerinden Kanada’ya ait ilgili yıla referans gösterilebilecek veriler elde edilemediği için bu ülke kapsam dışı bırakılmıştır. Ayrıca 2001 yılı öncesine ait veriler eksik olduğu ve dengeli panel veri analizi mümkün olmayacağı için 2001 sonrası uygulamaya dahil edilmiştir. Dinamik panel veri analizi ile elde edilen sayısal bulgular tüm değişkenlerin homojen ve yatay kesit bağımlılığına sahip olduğunu gösterirken, bağımlı ve bağımsız değişkenler arasında uzun dönemde eş-bütünleşik bir ilişki olduğunu ifade etmek mümkündür. Ortak Etkili İlişkiler modeli ile kısa ve uzun dönem katsayı tahmini yapılmıştır. Ticaretin finansmanı, ilgili dönemde diğer bağımsız değişkenlerle birlikte toplam ticaret hadlerindeki düşüşü kısmi bir şekilde açıklayabilmektedir. Çünkü ticaretin finansmanında meydana gelen bir azalışın yol açacağı ticaret kaybı, ekonomik veya finansal krizlerle birlikte devasa boyutlara ulaşabilmektedir.
Ethical Statement
Çalışma tamamen özgün bir fikir ile yazılmış bir araştırma makalesidir.
References
- Ahn, J. (2011). A Theory of Domestic and International Trade Finance. IMF Working Paper.
- Antras, P. ve Foley, C. F. (2011). Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices. Working Paper 17091, National Bureau of Economic Research.
- Baldwin R. (1989), Exporting the Capital Markets: Comparative Advantages and Capital Markets Imperfections, in Audretsch D., Sleuwaegen L. and Yamawakı H. (eds.), The Convergence of International And Domestic Markets, North Holland, Amsterdam.
- Bardhan, P. ve Kletzer, K. (1987). Credit Markets and Patterns of International Trade. Journal of Development Economics. 27, 57-70
- Beck, T. (2002), Financial Development and International Trade: Is There a Link? Journal of International Economics. 57, 107-131.
- Behrens, K.; Corcor, G. ve Mion, G. (2013). Trade Crisis? What Trade Crisis? https://www.jstor.org/stable/43554414 (01.08.2023).
- Brandi, C. ve Schmitz, B. (2015). Trade Flows in Developing Countries: What Is the Role of Trade Finance? IDOS Discussion Papers 13/2015, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
- Chaney, T. (2005), Liquidity Constrained Exporters. NBER Working Paper, 19170.
- Chauffour, J. P. ve Malouche, M. (2011). Trade finance during the Great Trade Collapse. World Bank.
- Contessi, S. ve de Francesca, N. (2012). What Do We Know about the Relationship between Access to Finance and International Trade? Working Paper 2012-054B http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2012/2012-054.pdf, (26.07.2023).
- Couppey-Soubeyran, J. ve Héricourt, J. (2011). The Relationship between Trade Credit, Bank Credit and Financial Structure: From Firm-level Non-linearities to Financial Development Heterogeneity. A Study on MENA Firm-level Data. Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 11008, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
- Çetiner, M. ve Eke, S. (2018). The Role and Importance of Export Credit Insurance in Support of Export Development and Economic Growth. PressAcademia Procedia (PAP), (8): 66-70.
- Dornel, A.; Engel, J. ve Malouche, M. (2023). Greesing the Wheels of Commerce – Trade Credits. https://blogs.worldbank.org/trade/greasing-wheels-commerce-trade-finance-and-credit, (12.11.2023).
- Eaton, J., Kortum, S., Neiman, B., ve Romalis, J. (2016). Trade and The Global Recession. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24911311, (01.08.2023).
- Gerni, C. (1990). Dış Ticaretin Finansmanı. Ankara Yayınevi, Türkiye.
- Glady, N. ve Potin, J. (2011). Bank Intermediation and Default Risk in International Trade Theory and Evidence. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:167969013 , (12.03.2023).
- Karul, Ç. (2016). Esnek Fourier Fonksiyonlu Yeni Bir Panel Birim Kök Testi Önerisi ve OECD Örneği. Pamukkale Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitütüsü, Ekonometri Anabilim Dalı, Yayınlanmış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
- Katharina, E.; Engemann, M. ve Schnitzer, M. (2012). How Trade Credits Foster International Trade. ECONSTOR Working Paper, No. 379, https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13175/, (12.11.2023).
- Kaya, F. ve Turguttopbaş, N. (2012). Dış Ticaret İşlemleri. TC. Anadolu Üniversitesi Yayını, No: 2526.
- Kraemer, C. ve Kajimoto, T. (2023). Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/markets/g7-finance-heads-face-tricky-trade-off-debating-steps-counter-china-2023-05-12/ (05.01.2023).
- Manova, K. (2013). Credit Constraints, Heterogeneous Firms, And International Trade. Review of Economic Studies. 80, 711-744.
- Nuroğlu, E. (2014). Estimating and Forecasting Trade Flows by Panel Data Analysis and Neural Networks. İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası. 64(1), 85-112.
- Olsen, M. G. (2011). Banks in International Trade: Incomplete International Contract Enforcement and Reputation. https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:37777830 (12.11.2023).
- Özdemir, Z. (1995). Dış Ticaret Finansman Tekniklerinden Faktoring ve Forfaiting İşlemleri. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 10(2): 194-224.
- Pesaran, H. M. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. Working Paper No:0435. University of Cambridge. 1-39.
- Pesaran, H. M. (2006). Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with A Multifactor Error Structure. Econometrics, 74(4), 967-1012.
- Pesaran, H. M. ve Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics. 142, 50-93.
- Kraemer, C. ve Kajimoto, T. (2023). Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/markets/g7-finance-heads-face-tricky-trade-off-debating-steps-counter-china-2023-05-12/ (05.01.2023).
- Ronci, M. (2004). Trade Finance and Trade Flows: Panel Data Evidence from 10 countries. IMF Working Paper, WP/04/225, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/Trade-Finance-and-Trade-Flows-Panel-Data-Evidence-From-10-Crises-17693, (03.08.2023).
- Schmidt-Eisenlohr, T. (2010). Towards a Theory of Trade Finance. Oxford University Business Center for Taxation Working Paper 10/23.
- Westerlund, J. (2008). Panel Co-integration Tests of the Fisher Effect. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 23, 193-233.
- UNESCAP (2002). Trade Facilitation Handbook for the Greater Mekong Subregion. United Nations Publication, ST/ESCAP/2224, New York, https://www.unescap.org/, (09.11.2023)
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Panel Data Analysis, Applied Macroeconometrics, International Finance |
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Early Pub Date | April 5, 2024 |
| Publication Date | |
| Submission Date | September 25, 2023 |
| Acceptance Date | January 16, 2024 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2024 Volume: 39 Issue: 2 |
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