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The Course of Tax Revenue During the Process of Population Aging: Empirical Evidence from Turkey

Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: Özel Sayı, 614 - 640, 29.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1348960

Abstract

Societies undergo continuous socio-economic transformations. One such significant change is the aging of the population, which carries substantial economic and social implications. This study examines the impact of population aging on tax revenues in Turkey, utilizing data spanning from 1971 to 2020. The ARDL cointegration analysis and the FMOLS long-term cointegration estimator were employed for the research. Contrary to the prevailing literature, the analysis results indicate a positive correlation between aging and tax revenue. Specifically, a 1% rise in the median age leads to a 2.71% increase in the share of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP.

References

  • Achenbaum, W. A. (2002). Gerontocracy. D. J. Ekerdt (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Aging (561-562). Thomson Gale.
  • Akalın, G. (2000). Kamu Ekonomisi. Akcag.
  • Akdoğan, A. (2011). Kamu Maliyesi. Gazi.
  • Arslan, N. (2015). Derin Yaşamak. Sokak Kitapları.
  • Beznoska, M. & Hentze, T. (2017). Demographic Change and Income Tax Revenue in Germany: A Microsimulation Approach. Public Sector Economics, 41(1), 71-84. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.1.8
  • Braun, R. A. & Joines, D. H. (2015). The Implications of A Graying Japan for Government Policy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 57, 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2015.05.005
  • Can, E. & Duran, İ. (2015). Demografik Faktörlerin Vergi Ahlakı Üzerindeki Etkisi: İstanbul İli Örneği. Finans, Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 52(606), 55-71. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/fpeyd/issue/48041/607530
  • Canatan, A. (2008). Sosyal Yönleriyle Yaşlılık. Palme.
  • Çelikkaya, A. & Gürbüz, H. (2008). Mükelleflerin Vergiye Karşı Tutum ve Davranışlarını Etkileyen Çeşitli Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 8(8), 23-54. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/sosyoekonomi/issue/21068/226833
  • Chen, D. (2016). Population Age Structure And The Budget Deficit. Journal of Insurance and Financial Management, 1(4), 32-67. https://journal-of-insurance-and-financial-management.com/index.php/JIFM/article/view/35
  • Clotfelter, C. (1983). Tax Evasion and Tax Rates: An Analysis of Individual Returns. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 65(3), 363-373. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1924181
  • Creedy, J., Enright, J., Gemmell, N. & Mellish, A. (2010). Population Ageing and Taxation in New Zealand. New Zealand Economic Papers, 44(2), 137-158. https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2010.492574
  • Dağ, M. (2019). Sosyal Güvenlik Bütçe Açıklarının Sürdürülebilirliği: 2009-2018 Türkiye Örneği. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 14(56), 369-378. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/jyasar/issue/49978/573588
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Gökbunar, A. R., Selim, S. & Yanıkkaya, H. (2007). Türkiye’de Vergi Ahlakını Belirleyen Faktörler Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 18(63), 69-94. https://www.ejmanager.com/fulltextpdf.php?mno=156071
  • Gruca, T. S. & Schewe, C. D. (1992). Researching Older Consumers. Marketing Research, 4(3), 18-24. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299559987_Researching_Older_Consumers
  • İpek, S. & Kaynar, İ. (2009). Vergiye Gönüllü Uyum Konusunda Çanakkale İline Yönelik Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 16(1), 173-190. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/yonveek/issue/13690/165693
  • Kaymak, H. & Dökmen, G. (2021). Nüfus Yaş Yapısındaki Değişimin Bütçe Açıklarına Etkisi. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6(3), 459-476. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/fesa/issue/64955/975940
  • Kudrna, G., Tran, C. & Woodland, A. (2015). The Dynamic Fiscal Effects of Demographic Shift: The Case of Australia. Economic Modelling, 50, 105-122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.05.010
  • Lee, R., Mason, A. & Cotlear, D. (2010). Some Economic Consequences of Global Aging: A Discussion Note for the World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/13603
  • Lee, S.-H., Kim, J. & Park, D. (2017). Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia. Social Indicators Research, 134(1), 287-322. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1424-0
  • Martinez-Vazquez, J. & Torgler, B. (2009). The Evolution of Tax Morale in Modern Spain. Journal of Economic Issues, 43(1), 1-28. https://doi.org/10.2753/JEI0021-3624430101
  • Mutlu, A. & Taşçı, K. (2013). Vergi Dairelerinin Mükellefe Davranış Biçimlerinin Vergilemede Gönüllü Uyuma Etkisi: Malatya Örneği. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 45(45), 214-232. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/esosder/issue/6159/82792
  • Okamoto, A. (2005). Simulating Fundamental Tax Reforms in an Aging Japan. Economic Systems Research, 17(2), 163-185. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535310500114911
  • Okamoto, A. (2007). Optimal Tax Combination in an Aging Japan. International Economic Journal, 21(1), 91-114. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168730601180978
  • Phillips, P. C. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Phillips, P. C. & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125.
  • Population Pyramid. (2023). Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100. https://www.populationpyramid.net/
  • Prammer, D. (2019). How does Population Ageing Impact on Personal Income Taxes and Social Security Contributions?. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 14, 100186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.12.005
  • Rockstein, M. & Sussman, M. (1979). Biology of Aging. Wadsworth Publishing Company.
  • Salvati, L., Carlucci, M., Serra, P. & Zambon, I. (2019). Demographic Transitions and Socioeconomic Development in Italy, 1862-2009: A Brief Overview. Sustainability, 11(242), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11010242
  • Simmons, L. W. (1945). The Role of the Aged in Primitive Society. Yale University Press.
  • Sriyana, J. (2011). Impact of Ageing Population on Tax Revenue in Indonesia. 3rd IRSA International Institute. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282977051_IMPACT_OF_AGEING_POPULATION_ON_TAX_REVENUE_IN_INDONESIA
  • Tatlı, H. & Göçer, İ. (2015). Türkiye’de Sosyal Güvenlik Politikalarının Sürdürülebilirliği: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi. İşletme ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(3), 87-111. https://search.trdizin.gov.tr/tr/yayin/detay/195685/turkiyede-sosyal-guvenlik-politikalarinin-surdurulebilirligi-coklu-yapisal-kirilmali-esbutunlesme-analizi
  • Tolkien, J. R. R. (2004). The Return of the King: Being the third part of The Lord of the Rings. HarperCollins Publisher.
  • Torgler, B. (2004). Tax Morale in Asian Countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 15(2), 237-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2004.02.001
  • Torgler, B. (2006). The Importance of Faith: Tax Morale and Religiosity. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 61(1), 81-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2004.10.007
  • Tufan, İ. (2016). Antik Çağ’dan Günümüze Yaşlılık ve Yaşlanma. Nobel Yayınevi.
  • TurkStat. (2023). Data Portal for Statistics. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/
  • United Nations. (2023). Population Division: World Population Prospects 2022. https://population.un.org/wpp/
  • Vogel, J. (1974). Taxation and Public Opinion in Sweden: An Interpretation of Recent Survey Data. National Tax Journal, 27(4), 499-513. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41861983
  • Wallschutzky, I. G. (1984). Possible Causes of Tax Evasion. Journal of Economic Psychology, 5(4), 371-384. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-4870(84)90034-5
  • World Bank. (2023). World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/
  • Zokalj, M. (2016). The Impact of Population Aging on Public Finance in the European Union. Financial Theory and Practice, 40(4), 383-412. https://doi.org/10.3326/fintp.40.4.2

Nüfusun Yaşlanma Sürecinde Vergi Hasılatının Seyri: Türkiye’den Ampirik Kanıtlar

Year 2023, Volume: 7 Issue: Özel Sayı, 614 - 640, 29.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1348960

Abstract

Toplumlar sosyoekonomik olarak sürekli bir değişim içerisindedir. Toplum nüfusunun yaşlanması da bu değişimlerden önemli bir tanesidir. Bu değişimin önemli ekonomik ve sosyal sonuçları olmaktadır. Çalışmada 1971 ve 2020 yılları arasını kapsayan veriler kullanılarak Türkiye’de nüfusun yaşlanmasının vergi hasılatı üzerindeki etkisi test edilmektedir. Çalışmada ARDL eşbütünleşme analizi ve FMOLS uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Analiz sonucuna göre genel literatürün aksine yaşlanma ile vergi hasılatı arasında pozitif ilişki bulunmuştur. Medyan yaşta meydana gelen %1’lik bir artış GSYH içerisindeki vergi gelirlerinin payını %2,71 oranında artırmaktadır.

References

  • Achenbaum, W. A. (2002). Gerontocracy. D. J. Ekerdt (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Aging (561-562). Thomson Gale.
  • Akalın, G. (2000). Kamu Ekonomisi. Akcag.
  • Akdoğan, A. (2011). Kamu Maliyesi. Gazi.
  • Arslan, N. (2015). Derin Yaşamak. Sokak Kitapları.
  • Beznoska, M. & Hentze, T. (2017). Demographic Change and Income Tax Revenue in Germany: A Microsimulation Approach. Public Sector Economics, 41(1), 71-84. https://doi.org/10.3326/pse.41.1.8
  • Braun, R. A. & Joines, D. H. (2015). The Implications of A Graying Japan for Government Policy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 57, 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2015.05.005
  • Can, E. & Duran, İ. (2015). Demografik Faktörlerin Vergi Ahlakı Üzerindeki Etkisi: İstanbul İli Örneği. Finans, Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 52(606), 55-71. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/fpeyd/issue/48041/607530
  • Canatan, A. (2008). Sosyal Yönleriyle Yaşlılık. Palme.
  • Çelikkaya, A. & Gürbüz, H. (2008). Mükelleflerin Vergiye Karşı Tutum ve Davranışlarını Etkileyen Çeşitli Değişkenler Arasındaki İlişkinin Analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 8(8), 23-54. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/sosyoekonomi/issue/21068/226833
  • Chen, D. (2016). Population Age Structure And The Budget Deficit. Journal of Insurance and Financial Management, 1(4), 32-67. https://journal-of-insurance-and-financial-management.com/index.php/JIFM/article/view/35
  • Clotfelter, C. (1983). Tax Evasion and Tax Rates: An Analysis of Individual Returns. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 65(3), 363-373. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1924181
  • Creedy, J., Enright, J., Gemmell, N. & Mellish, A. (2010). Population Ageing and Taxation in New Zealand. New Zealand Economic Papers, 44(2), 137-158. https://doi.org/10.1080/00779954.2010.492574
  • Dağ, M. (2019). Sosyal Güvenlik Bütçe Açıklarının Sürdürülebilirliği: 2009-2018 Türkiye Örneği. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 14(56), 369-378. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/jyasar/issue/49978/573588
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Gökbunar, A. R., Selim, S. & Yanıkkaya, H. (2007). Türkiye’de Vergi Ahlakını Belirleyen Faktörler Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Ekonomik Yaklasim, 18(63), 69-94. https://www.ejmanager.com/fulltextpdf.php?mno=156071
  • Gruca, T. S. & Schewe, C. D. (1992). Researching Older Consumers. Marketing Research, 4(3), 18-24. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/299559987_Researching_Older_Consumers
  • İpek, S. & Kaynar, İ. (2009). Vergiye Gönüllü Uyum Konusunda Çanakkale İline Yönelik Ampirik Bir Çalışma. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 16(1), 173-190. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/yonveek/issue/13690/165693
  • Kaymak, H. & Dökmen, G. (2021). Nüfus Yaş Yapısındaki Değişimin Bütçe Açıklarına Etkisi. Finans Ekonomi ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6(3), 459-476. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/fesa/issue/64955/975940
  • Kudrna, G., Tran, C. & Woodland, A. (2015). The Dynamic Fiscal Effects of Demographic Shift: The Case of Australia. Economic Modelling, 50, 105-122. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.05.010
  • Lee, R., Mason, A. & Cotlear, D. (2010). Some Economic Consequences of Global Aging: A Discussion Note for the World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/13603
  • Lee, S.-H., Kim, J. & Park, D. (2017). Demographic Change and Fiscal Sustainability in Asia. Social Indicators Research, 134(1), 287-322. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-016-1424-0
  • Martinez-Vazquez, J. & Torgler, B. (2009). The Evolution of Tax Morale in Modern Spain. Journal of Economic Issues, 43(1), 1-28. https://doi.org/10.2753/JEI0021-3624430101
  • Mutlu, A. & Taşçı, K. (2013). Vergi Dairelerinin Mükellefe Davranış Biçimlerinin Vergilemede Gönüllü Uyuma Etkisi: Malatya Örneği. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 45(45), 214-232. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/esosder/issue/6159/82792
  • Okamoto, A. (2005). Simulating Fundamental Tax Reforms in an Aging Japan. Economic Systems Research, 17(2), 163-185. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535310500114911
  • Okamoto, A. (2007). Optimal Tax Combination in an Aging Japan. International Economic Journal, 21(1), 91-114. https://doi.org/10.1080/10168730601180978
  • Phillips, P. C. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Phillips, P. C. & Hansen, B. E. (1990). Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes. The Review of Economic Studies, 57(1), 99-125.
  • Population Pyramid. (2023). Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100. https://www.populationpyramid.net/
  • Prammer, D. (2019). How does Population Ageing Impact on Personal Income Taxes and Social Security Contributions?. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, 14, 100186. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2018.12.005
  • Rockstein, M. & Sussman, M. (1979). Biology of Aging. Wadsworth Publishing Company.
  • Salvati, L., Carlucci, M., Serra, P. & Zambon, I. (2019). Demographic Transitions and Socioeconomic Development in Italy, 1862-2009: A Brief Overview. Sustainability, 11(242), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11010242
  • Simmons, L. W. (1945). The Role of the Aged in Primitive Society. Yale University Press.
  • Sriyana, J. (2011). Impact of Ageing Population on Tax Revenue in Indonesia. 3rd IRSA International Institute. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/282977051_IMPACT_OF_AGEING_POPULATION_ON_TAX_REVENUE_IN_INDONESIA
  • Tatlı, H. & Göçer, İ. (2015). Türkiye’de Sosyal Güvenlik Politikalarının Sürdürülebilirliği: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi. İşletme ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(3), 87-111. https://search.trdizin.gov.tr/tr/yayin/detay/195685/turkiyede-sosyal-guvenlik-politikalarinin-surdurulebilirligi-coklu-yapisal-kirilmali-esbutunlesme-analizi
  • Tolkien, J. R. R. (2004). The Return of the King: Being the third part of The Lord of the Rings. HarperCollins Publisher.
  • Torgler, B. (2004). Tax Morale in Asian Countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 15(2), 237-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2004.02.001
  • Torgler, B. (2006). The Importance of Faith: Tax Morale and Religiosity. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 61(1), 81-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2004.10.007
  • Tufan, İ. (2016). Antik Çağ’dan Günümüze Yaşlılık ve Yaşlanma. Nobel Yayınevi.
  • TurkStat. (2023). Data Portal for Statistics. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/
  • United Nations. (2023). Population Division: World Population Prospects 2022. https://population.un.org/wpp/
  • Vogel, J. (1974). Taxation and Public Opinion in Sweden: An Interpretation of Recent Survey Data. National Tax Journal, 27(4), 499-513. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41861983
  • Wallschutzky, I. G. (1984). Possible Causes of Tax Evasion. Journal of Economic Psychology, 5(4), 371-384. https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-4870(84)90034-5
  • World Bank. (2023). World Bank Open Data. https://data.worldbank.org/
  • Zokalj, M. (2016). The Impact of Population Aging on Public Finance in the European Union. Financial Theory and Practice, 40(4), 383-412. https://doi.org/10.3326/fintp.40.4.2
There are 44 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Policy of Treasury
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ali Gökhan Gölçek 0000-0002-7948-7688

Bilal Göde 0000-0001-8377-5909

Publication Date October 29, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 7 Issue: Özel Sayı

Cite

APA Gölçek, A. G., & Göde, B. (2023). The Course of Tax Revenue During the Process of Population Aging: Empirical Evidence from Turkey. Fiscaoeconomia, 7(Özel Sayı), 614-640. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1348960

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